In the second half of October, the Russian hot-rolled steel market showed signs of recovery, with prices rising by 1,500-2,000 rubles per ton. This price movement was largely attributed to a significant reduction in stock levels, which reached their lowest point in months, paired with demand that, while stable, remained fragile. Steelmakers responded to these favorable conditions by ramping up export volumes, which helped alleviate pressure on domestic markets. Interestingly, welded pipe prices saw some regional variations—while prices increased slightly in certain areas, Central Russia bucked the trend with a noticeable decline. Looking ahead, the market remains cautious as the anticipated rise in the key interest rate on October 25 is now viewed by many as a factor likely to exacerbate inflation, potentially driving up production costs for steel manufacturers. This, combined with the expected seasonal slowdown in demand over the winter, poses challenges for any significant spot price increases, despite some opportunities that remain open to metal traders.
In export markets, non-sanctioned Russian hot-rolled coil suppliers have been testing higher price levels compared to the previous week. Several buyers have accepted these offers, but market participants appear divided on the sustainability of further price hikes. While some are hesitant to commit, preferring to wait for more stability, others are willing to engage at these higher price points, particularly in response to tightening global supply.
Russian producers started the week offering HRC from November production at around $525 per ton FOB Black Sea, up from the prior week's $510-520 per ton range. Reports circulated of deals being completed at these levels, with some transactions reaching $550 per ton CFR Türkiye. However, market sentiment suggests that further increases may be limited, with many buyers skeptical that prices will climb beyond the $525 per ton FOB Black Sea mark. By the end of the week, Turkish buyers were largely taking a wait-and-see approach, anticipating clearer signals from China before making further commitments.
In contrast, sub-sanctioned Russian sellers have slightly lowered their prices, with offers for November production dipping to around $485-490 per ton FOB Novorossiysk, down from the previous week’s $490-495 per ton. These sellers continue to face challenges, particularly around payment terms, which often require substantial prepayments. In the MENA region, offers were reported in the range of $520-530 per ton CFR, a slight reduction from earlier levels of $530-540 per ton. Although some transactions have been finalized, demand in this region remains moderate, and there’s a prevailing sense that buyers are holding off for more clarity from the Chinese market, which could further influence pricing dynamics.
For cold-rolled coil, prices have seen a moderate increase, with Russian suppliers offering the material at $620 per ton FOB Black Sea, compared to $610 per ton a week earlier. Sub-sanctioned sellers, meanwhile, have adjusted their offers to around $605-615 per ton FOB.
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