Russian hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have experienced a $10 increase, reaching $475 FOB Black Sea, as exporters continue to actively sell steel from late February-March production.
The Russian domestic market for HRC remains weak, prompting exporters to prioritize foreign clients.
Attempts by Chinese suppliers to establish an upward trajectory in the global steel market have bolstered Russian HRC prices. With Chinese players influencing price expectations, Russian exporters have successfully anchored higher levels in recent contracts, further solidifying their presence in international markets. Last week, Russian unsanctioned HRC was estimated at $470-480/t FOB Black Sea.
The high volatility of the Russian ruble has also contributed to price increases, as exporters navigate fluctuating exchange rates. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, based on the results of the fourth week of 2025, the average arithmetic exchange rate of the Russian ruble to the US dollar decreased by 3.2% to 99.5056 rubles per dollar. A weaker ruble makes Russian steel more attractive to foreign buyers, while higher volatility adds a layer of complexity to pricing strategies. Additionally, exporters remain optimistic that current port congestion issues will gradually be resolved, potentially improving shipment efficiency and reinforcing export stability.
On the domestic Russian market, during the period under review, the "Rusmet Hot Rolled Coil Index (IRHRSMR00)" (FCA trader's warehouse, Moscow), reflecting the price dynamics in the central region of the Russian Federation, decreased by 0.6 percent to 66.76 thousand rubles per ton. This decline highlights ongoing challenges in the local market, contrasting with the upward trend observed in export pricing.
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