There is an imbalance in HRC market

United States: Tariffs Shield Domestic Prices

The U.S. market stood out with upward momentum. Domestic producers successfully raised HRC prices, supported by protectionist measures introduced by former President Donald Trump. These tariffs helped local mills maintain a price buffer despite weakening global demand. However, there are concerns about how long this support can last given broader macroeconomic headwinds.

China and European Union: Persistent Weakness Pressures Prices

In contrast, HRC markets in China and the European Union continued to struggle. Weak consumer activity, elevated inventories, and intense competition among sellers forced price reductions. While there were some signs of stabilization toward the end of June, overall market sentiment remained cautious, with participants hesitant to make aggressive purchases.

Russia: Strategic Price Cuts Aim to Revive Demand

Russian HRC exporters moved to reduce their prices as trading activity began to pick up after a prolonged period of sluggish demand. New offers for non-sanctioned HRC were reported at around $440–450/t FOB Black Sea, down from $450–460/t in the second half of June. These offers were mostly aimed at buyers in Türkiye and the MENA region.

For markets further afield, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and India, even lower prices were accepted, in the range of $427–433/t FOB Novorossiysk. Final CFR prices, particularly to India, were heard at $457–470/t, depending on freight conditions, which remain volatile.

Some sub-sanctioned exporters maintained a firmer stance, offering at $450–455/t FOB Black Sea. These suppliers seemed to be taking a more conservative approach, showing little urgency to chase sales in distant overseas markets.

Fragile Recovery with Signs of Activity

The recent price cuts appear to have stimulated demand, with improved trading activity noted over the past two weeks. However, the recovery remains fragile. Until major consuming regions like China and the EU show consistent demand and freight costs stabilize, the global HRC market is expected to remain in a state of cautious flux.

For now, the market finds itself at a crossroads, balancing short-term pricing strategies against the need for sustained demand recovery in the second half of 2025.