Billet: Waiting for the Drop
Russian billet suppliers kept their offers mostly unchanged this week. Russian mills quoted $445–452/t FOB Black Sea for October–November shipments, with large producers giving the lower numbers and mid-sized mills sticking closer to the top of the range. Last week, prices were about $450/t FOB. Market insiders expect a decrease soon, as the weaker rouble gives exporters room to cut by another $7–8/t.
Donbas billet was offered at $435–445/t FOB Novorossiysk, flat week-on-week. Some cargoes to Türkiye were heard at $460–465/t CFR (about $440–445/t FOB), but Turkish buyers are resisting. Their target price is closer to $450–455/t CFR or $430–435/t FOB.
Sales in North Africa showed some activity. In Egypt, 10,000 t of Russian billet was sold at $485/t CFR Damietta ($445–450/t FOB). But with the new safeguard duty in Egypt, some buyers may cancel earlier contracts or resell the material at a discount elsewhere. Tunisia also took 15,000 t for October shipment at $475/t CFR ($440–445/t FOB).
HRC: Mills Try to Push Higher
While billet is under pressure, Russian hot-rolled coil (HRC) producers are still trying to lift prices. Non-sanctioned HRC offers are at $485–495/t FOB Black Sea, with some suppliers asking $500/t FOB. Actual sales for October–early November production were mostly around $485/t FOB.
Producers under partial sanctions kept their HRC at $480–485/t FOB Novorossiysk. In the MENA region, one mill has held steady at $500/t CFR for three weeks, and insiders say some buyers are willing to pay even more, but logistics are a barrier. Reports also mention offers to Syria at $500/t CFR Tripoli.
Slabs: Stable but Room to Negotiate
Slab offers stayed broadly in line with previous weeks. Russian suppliers quoted $445–455/t FOB Black Sea for Türkiye and $455–465/t FOB for EU buyers. Traders say mills are ready to give small discounts of around $5–7/t to trusted customers, thanks to the favourable exchange rate. Lower-priced slabs are still available at $430–435/t FOB Black Sea, unchanged since late August. In Asia, slabs are being booked at $420–430/t FOB Far East ports, with a workable CFR level of around $440/t.
The Role of the Rouble and Interest Rates
Currency and interest rates are playing just as big a role in this market as actual demand. The Central Bank of Russia cut its key rate from 18% to 17% at the September 12 meeting. Many businesses were hoping for a two-point cut, but the Bank chose a slower step. That means the current level will stay in place until at least October 24, when the next meeting is scheduled.
At first, such a cautious approach looked reasonable. But in just a week, the situation got worse: consumer inflation picked up to 0.1%, the highest since April, and the rouble weakened by more than 5%, falling to 85.7 per dollar. For exporters, a weaker rouble is good news, since dollar revenues increase. But it is also one of the strongest inflationary factors — meaning the Central Bank is even less willing to cut rates quickly.
This creates a kind of trap: exporters cheer weaker currency and higher dollar prices, but at the same time complain that credit remains too expensive for investment. The economy is stuck waiting for cheaper loans, while the Bank insists that inflation has to be brought back down toward 4% before rates can be eased further.
For now, the consumer market looks stable; retail sales, services, and even restaurants are showing growth. But many parts of the industry are reporting sharp declines, raising doubts about how sustainable this balance is. If negative trends in the real sector last longer, the current “stability” may vanish, bringing closures, job losses, and unpaid loans.
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