When the statements made by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials since last week in a "hawkish" tone are supported by the announced data, the probability that the bank will increase interest rates by 75 basis points in this month's meeting in the stock market pricing has increased to 74 percent.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated in a statement yesterday that the bank should raise the interest rate above 4 percent and keep it there for a while to bring inflation to the target level, while private sector employment in the USA recorded the lowest increase in nearly a year with 132,000 in August.
While it is expected that the picture on the development of the sector will be completed with the weekly unemployment applications to be announced in the USA today and the non-farm employment report tomorrow, it is expected that the expectations for the Fed's move this month will also become clear.
With these developments, the sales-weighted trend that had dominated the New York stock market since the beginning of the week continued yesterday as well. The Dow Jones index fell 0.88 percent, the S&P 500 index fell 0.78 percent and the Nasdaq index fell 0.56 percent. While the dollar index was hovering at 109.1 after closing at 108.9 with an increase of 0.2 percent yesterday, the US 10-year bond yield tested the highest level in more than two months with 3.22 percent.
While the rapid rise in energy prices and the increasing inflationary pressures in parallel with this remain the focus of the agenda on the European side, recession concerns for the regional economies are also increasing. According to the data released yesterday, while the inflation in the Euro Area reached its historical peak with an annual 9.1 percent in August, it is considered certain that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its next meeting in the face of increasing inflation pressures.
On the other hand, yesterday, after the White House National Security Council Strategic Communications Director John Kirby announced that the G7 finance ministers would meet on Friday and discuss the ceiling price for Russian oil, natural gas futures prices traded in the Netherlands fell by nearly 10 percent to 239 euros. . With these developments, the sales-weighted course continued in the European stock markets, and the DAX 40 index in Germany lost 0.97 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 1.37 percent and the FTSE 100 index in the UK depreciated by 1.05 percent. After closing above 1.0055 with an increase of 0.4 percent yesterday, the euro/dollar parity started to decline again today.
On the Asian side, Chengdu province, where heavy industry and chip industry is heavily involved, was put under quarantine due to the increasing number of new types of coronavirus (Kovid-19) cases in China. Kovid-19 measures were tightened in Shenzhen, the country's technology center. On the other hand, according to the data released today, China's manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decreased by 0.9 points in August and entered the contraction zone with 49.5. In the face of the slowing economy as the epidemic measures continue, the Chinese government announced that it will announce detailed steps for new economic policy measures in two weeks.
While Asian stock markets started the new day with sellers, Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 1.6 percent, Kospi index in South Korea by 1.7 percent and Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 0.04 percent near the close.
With the increasing recession concerns in Europe and Asia, the decline in oil prices continued and the price of Brent oil decreased from 103.3 dollars to 94.7 dollars per barrel, depreciating by 8.3 percent in the last two trading days.
In the domestic market, the BIST 100 index gained 0.20 percent after the better-than-expected growth data, closing the highest level of all time with 3,171.21 points, and brought its highest level record to 3,198.99 points. Dollar/TL is traded at 18.2040 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 18.1900 by following a horizontal course yesterday.
On the other hand, the international credit rating agency Moody's raised its 2022 growth forecast for the Turkish economy from 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent.
Analysts said that the global risk appetite is low due to the expectations that the central banks will continue to increase the aggressive interest rates, the recession concerns in Europe and the concerns that the slowdown in the Chinese economy will continue.
Analysts said that the intense data agenda, especially the manufacturing industry PMI to be announced around the world, will be followed, and noted that the course of rising bond yields should be closely monitored.
Analysts reported that technically, the BIST 100 index is at the level of 3.200 as resistance and 3.050 points as support.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
09.00 Germany, July retail sales
10.00 Turkey, August manufacturing PMI
10.55 Germany, august manufacturing PMI
11.00 Eurozone, august manufacturing PMI
11.30 UK, august manufacturing PMI
12.00 Eurozone, unemployment rate in July
14.30 Turkey, weekly money and bank statistics
15.30 US, weekly jobless claims
16.45 US, august manufacturing PMI
17.00 US, august ISM manufacturing PMI