While the manufacturing industry PMI data for July fell to the lowest level in 3 months with 49 in China, it fell to 49.8 in Europe and entered the contraction zone. In the US, the Supply Management Institute (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 52.8, but remained at its lowest level since June 2020.
While the details of the data pointing to the continuing loss of momentum in the manufacturing industry sector strengthened the recession expectations, the global stock markets, which started the day cautiously, closed the day with a decline. With the expectations of recession, the demand for the dollar continued to decrease and the dollar index fell to the 105 limit, reaching its lowest level in about a month. The US 10-year bond yield continued its downward trend and fell to 2.53 percent, the lowest level since April 5th.
With the decline in the dollar index, the ounce price of gold rose to its highest level in about a month with 1,780.5 dollars, while the barrel price of Brent oil fell below 100 dollars again due to the concerns that demand would decrease and reached the lowest level of the last week at 98.1 dollars.
With these developments, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.14 percent, the S&P 500 index by 0.28 percent and the Nasdaq index by 0.18 percent in the New York stock market. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a decrease as well.
On the European side, the steps to be taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the face of Russia-Ukraine tension, energy crisis and high inflation remain at the center of the agenda. On the macroeconomic side, the data released yesterday pointed out that the unemployment rate in the Euro Area remained unchanged at 6.6 percent in June, while the manufacturing industry PMI data revealed that cost pressures continued. On the other hand, yesterday, the European Union (EU) countries gave 1 billion euros of macro financial support to Ukraine. The departure of the first commercial ship loaded with grain from the Odessa Port of Ukraine stood out as the most important development of the day. With these developments, the DAX 30 index in Germany decreased by 0.03 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 0.18 percent and the FTSE 100 index in the UK by 0.13 percent. The euro/dollar parity was 0 percent yesterday.
The expected visit of Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, to the Indo-Pacific countries throughout Asia increased the perception of geopolitical risk.
While China has issued strong warnings that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan will have serious consequences, including military response, White House National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby said in a statement that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was a very natural matter, and that this visit was a very natural affair. stated that he had the right to do so. The American television channel CNN reported that Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan.
With these developments, Asian stock markets started the day with a sharp decline, while the Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 2.3 percent, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan by 1.3 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong by 2.7 percent. After the Reserve Bank of Australia increased the policy rate by 50 basis points to 1.85 percent in line with the expectations, the ASX 200 index remained flat.
In Borsa Istanbul, which was followed by a buying-heavy course in the domestic market yesterday, the BIST 100 index gained 2.47 percent and closed the highest of all time with 2,656.32 points. On the other hand, Dollar / TL is traded at 17.9080 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 17.9022 with a decrease of 0.1 percent compared to the previous closing level yesterday.
Analysts stated that after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that they will act data-oriented in the decisions to be taken in the next period, the sensitivity to the announced data increased, and said that the negative signals received regarding the manufacturing industry as well as the increasing tension between China and the USA limited the risk appetite.
Stating that the data agenda is weak today and that the Fed officials' statements will be followed, analysts stated that technically, the level of 2.670 in the BIST 100 index is in the position of resistance and 2,540 points in the position of support.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
09.00 UK, July house price index
14.30 Turkey, May, foreign currency assets and liabilities of non-financial companies
17.00 USA, JOLTS job vacancies in June
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