While uncertainties regarding the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy continue, employment data, which has a significant impact on the Fed's decisions, such as inflation, is determinant on the pricing in the markets.
According to the data released in the USA yesterday, private sector employment increased by 374 thousand people in August. Despite the increase in question, private sector employment, which was well below market expectations, was expected to increase by 613 thousand.
Analysts stated that the August data in private sector employment showed that the recovery in the labor market slowed down, and noted that the data on non-farm employment, unemployment and average hourly earnings in the employment report to be announced tomorrow are expected.
While the expectations about how the monetary policies will be shaped constitute the main agenda of the markets, the international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings announced yesterday that the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates constant until 2025, and bond purchases are expected to continue until at least 2024. reported.
Pointing out that the euro area is already experiencing some temporary inflationary pressures, it was stated that price pressures are not expected to be solid enough to trigger rate hikes before 2025, based on the ECB's 2 percent symmetrical inflation target.
On the other hand, at the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+ group, which consists of some non-OPEC producer countries, it was announced that it was decided to continue the plan to gradually ease the daily oil production cuts in the previously determined August-December period.
With these developments and the mixed signals from the Manufacturing Industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data announced yesterday, a fluctuating course was observed in the stock markets, while the barrel price of Brent oil moved in the band of 70.0-72.5 dollars and stabilized just above 71 dollars.
Yesterday, the Supply Management Institute (ISM) manufacturing index in the US rose to 59.9 in August, up 0.4 points compared to the previous month, surpassing market expectations. The Dow Jones index fell 0.14 percent after the data, while the S&P 500 index gained 0.03 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 0.33 percent. Thus, with the rise in technology stocks, the Nasdaq index broke a record once again at the close.
European stock markets, on the other hand, saw increases, excluding Germany. Manufacturing industry PMI data closed the month with a decline in almost all of Europe, while retail sales in Germany fell by 5.1 percent in July after the strong increase in May and June, below the expectations.
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK increased by 0.42 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 1.18 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy by 0.66 percent, while the DAX 30 index in Germany decreased by 0.07 percent.
Today, a mixed trend is also observed in Asian stock markets. While the Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 0.2 percent and the Shanghai composite index in China increased by 0.5 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea depreciated by 0.9 percent.
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which continued its trend with buyers after the growth data announced yesterday, gained 0.14 percent and closed the day at 1,474.13 points. The dollar/TL, which saw its lowest level since May 11 with 8.2761 yesterday, was balanced just below 8.30.
While the Turkish economy grew by 21.7 percent with the base effect in the second quarter of the year, the sub-items of the data provided an upward revision of the growth expectations for the whole of 2021.
Expressing that the signals from consumption, investment and export items give hope for the next period, economists said that a growth figure between 8 and 9.5 percent can be reached at the end of 2021.
Analysts said that today, exports in the country, Producer Price Index (PPI) in the Euro Area, factory orders and weekly unemployment applications in the USA will be followed, and that, technically, 1.490 points in the BIST 100 index are resistance and 1.455 is support.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
12.00 Eurozone, July PPI
15.30 US, weekly jobless claims
15.30 USA, July foreign trade balance
17.00 US, July factory and durable goods orders
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