While Chinese producers are trying to avoid sharp price cuts, market sentiment remains cautious. However, statements from the China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) supporting private sector investment provide limited confidence to markets in the medium term.
In the iron ore segment, prices are decreasing due to growing interest in Chinese port inventories and buyers waiting for lower levels. The CFR North China based IODEX benchmark has decreased to USD 107.25/dmt, while mills are increasingly shifting from expensive seaborne cargoes toward portside stocks. In the coking coal segment, the market is relatively more stable, with Australian premium low-vol coal prices holding at USD 241/mt FOB.
Demand conditions in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia are slowing significantly. In Vietnam, the upcoming rainy season and weak end-user consumption are reducing import appetite. Aggressive offers from Indian HRC producers, driven by oversupply, are further increasing price pressure in the Vietnamese market. Chinese billet offers also continue to show a downward trend. In the scrap market, buyer interest remains weak.
The India market, however, continues to appear more resilient compared to other countries in the region. Domestic demand remains stable, although end-user resistance to higher prices is limiting price increases. Mumbai CRC prices are moving sideways at approximately USD 653–663/mt. At the same time, the weak rupee against the US dollar continues to pressure imported raw material costs. India remains the main diverging market in the region, with infrastructure investments and industrial production supporting steel demand. Capacity expansions and new plant investments are positioning the country as a major growth hub in Asia, which may reduce long-term dependence on China.
The Australia raw materials market maintains its strong performance. High export volumes achieved by Rio Tinto in its Pilbara operations are considered an important scale indicator for the sector. In addition, BHP’s new iron ore sales for June shipment to China indicate that large-scale supply flows continue despite slowing Chinese demand.
In the overall outlook, demand in Japan and Korea remains stable but growth is weak. In these countries, steel demand is mainly driven by automotive, shipbuilding, and high value-added industrial production. Therefore, rather than sharp price movements seen in China and ASEAN, a narrower trading range is observed. The weak Japanese yen also supports export competitiveness, occasionally making Japan more aggressive in intra-Asia trade.
Thailand’s decision to extend anti-dumping measures on CRC products and Malaysia’s introduction of new tariffs on galvanized steel imports are among the notable developments.
Latest prices are as follows:
• HMS 1/2 80:20 (CFR Türkiye): USD 410/mt
• Shredded scrap (CFR India): USD 390/mt
• H2 scrap (FOB Japan): USD 337–338/mt
• HMS 1/2 80:20 (CFR Taiwan): USD 360/mt (FOB China)
• HRC SAE1006 (FOB China): USD 525/mt
• HRC SS400 (FOB China): USD 503/mt
• Rebar (FOB China): USD 504/mt
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