What is the situation in the China and India steel markets towards the end of the year?

China:

The year 2023 was mixed all over the world, especially in China. Economic fluctuations in China throughout the year, real estate crises, hesitancy of merchants, etc. These factors closely affected the global iron and steel industry. However, according to the analysis of market experts, there will be an optimistic picture in the first half of 2024. In addition, it is said that China's steel exports and profit margins in the Chinese steel market will be decisive in 2024.

A look at China's steel margins throughout 2023 shows that they have fallen to approximately $100 per ton, especially due to the recent increase in iron ore and coking coal prices.

Looking at China's steel exports, it has remained consistently high for the past four months, with gross exports reaching eight million tons every month.

While iron ore started the year with 117 USD in the first month of 2023, it recorded a steady increase in the last five months of 2023. Throughout the year, various economic incentives of the Chinese government, Beijing's practices to improve the China's real estate sector, etc. caused fluctuations in iron ore prices. Monthly prices throughout the year were recorded as follows:

While hot rolled coil was recorded at 591 USD in early 2023, it fell to 558 USD in December 2023. Monthly hot rolled coil prices throughout the year were recorded as follows:

India:

India has begun to take its place among the leading countries in the rapidly developing world of the iron and steel industry. However, looking at the country's domestic market, although it was strong, it was seen as a net steel importer in July 2023. According to market analysts, this was because steel prices in India were initially higher than import prices, creating a competitive disadvantage.

Although India's steel import orders seem to have stagnated in the current situation, previous orders may keep this level high until the first months of 2024 and put pressure on steel prices in the domestic market.

While hot rolled coil was recorded as 638 USD in January 2023, it increased to 638 USD by the last month of the year. It reached its peak at 729 USD in April 2023. The lowest price was 638 USD in January 2023. Hot rolled coil prices on a monthly basis throughout the year were recorded as follows: