Export prices for China-origin hot-rolled coil (HRC) continue to face downward pressure amid sluggish demand signals and intensifying regional competition. According to market sources gathered by SteelRadar, Chinese suppliers are offering SS400-grade HRC at FOB USD445-460/ton, while theoretical transaction prices have dropped to FOB USD430-445/ton. Last week, this range stood at USD435-443/ton.
For Southeast Asian buyers, CFR prices remain within the USD460-465/ton range, though some low-priced deals have reached as low as CFR USD465/ton. Meanwhile, buyers in India, South Korea, and the Middle East are reportedly receiving offers for Chinese SS400 HRC at CFR USD470-480/ton.
Last week, a batch of China-origin Q195 HRC was sold at CFR USD458-459/ton. Current export offers for Q195 remain stable at CFR USD465-470/ton. For Q235-grade coils, a minor drop was observed, with offers hovering around CFR USD452/ton — slightly down from last week's USD453-458/ton.
As of July 1, domestic ex-mill prices for HRC in China ranged from USD451 to USD485/ton. The average price rose by about 6 yuan/ton (approx. USD0.8/ton) compared to June 25. However, China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.5 in June — down 0.5 points from May, signaling ongoing contraction. According to the Steel Logistics Committee under the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, faster destocking rates have fueled market expectations of a potential rebound.
Chinese Export Offers Hit Five-Year Lows
SteelRadar data shows that Chinese HRC export offers fell by USD9/ton month-on-month in June to average USD445/ton FOB — a level last seen in June 2020. Sluggish domestic demand and seasonal slowdowns have contributed to the softer pricing. In Vietnam, local supply sufficiency limited Chinese HRC purchases, though some transactions occurred for re-export purposes.
Indian producers focused more on the domestic market in June due to better margins, reducing their presence in export destinations like the Middle East, where aggressive Chinese pricing made competition difficult. Indian HRC offers to the EU declined by USD26/ton month-on-month to USD565/ton amid weak demand, summer holidays, and cautious buyer sentiment.
A re-export trader associated with Aramco recently finalized a major HRC purchase from Japan following a week-long negotiation. Around 25,000 tons were reportedly booked at CFR USD490-495/ton, with shipment scheduled for August. Japanese suppliers are maintaining offer levels around this range.
Saudi Arabia and Southeast Asia Market Overview
Chinese SS400 HRC offers without VAT rebate are currently quoted at CFR USD460-465/ton to Saudi Arabia — slightly below last week's CFR USD465/ton. Overall Chinese export prices for HRC remain in the range of CFR USD470-480/ton. Meanwhile, Indian offers for July are emerging at CFR USD450-460/ton, though no confirmed deals have been reported yet.
In contrast, Southeast Asian suppliers are holding steady at CFR USD510-515/ton, while Taiwan-origin HRC offers are reported at a similar level of CFR USD515/ton.
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