Import restrictions effective from August 1 caused disruptions in external supply and gave domestic producers an important advantage in maintaining their prices. However, uncertainty in demand and cautious ordering strategies by buyers limit price increases.
Imports Pull Back, Domestic Producers Gain Room
The balance between imports and domestic production in the US steel market is shaped by new tariffs and regional demand differences; prices and inventory levels reflect market conditions that vary from region to region.
At Gulf Coast and Southern California ports, rebar prices range between $780–900/st, with new tariffs and additional costs prompting buyers to act cautiously. On the East Coast, stocks are depleting quickly, and in hubs like Houston, the impact of imports on the market is expected to remain limited through the end of the year.
Major producers in the Midwest and Southeast maintain rebar prices at $860–875/st, while in the West, rebar offers range between $860–900/st, attempting to keep demand active amid declining orders.
HRC prices have dropped to $850–865/st EXW on the East Coast and are balanced at $835–845/st in the Midwest. September futures contracts decreased to $825–835/st, indicating short-term adjustments in the spot market.
Most producers, distributors, and end-users consider demand conditions to be “fairly stagnant.” Small and medium-sized orders dominate, while for large-scale purchases, producers do not negotiate prices and buyers are directed to wait.
Raw Material Prices and Production Plans
Raw material prices in the US market continue to fluctuate; especially pig iron and scrap prices show limited changes depending on production and demand conditions. Pig iron CIF New Orleans price fell to $430/mt. Scrap prices remained flat, though a recovery is possible in the coming weeks. Most mills maintain current levels, while only a limited number plan to increase capacity.
In US coking coal exports, changes are occurring due to domestic market contraction and trade policies. Exporters are turning to alternative markets such as Canada and Latin America. Price fluctuations and trade barriers with China may reshape the US foreign trade strategy.
Short-Term Outlook After Tariffs
While new tariffs reduce imports and allow domestic producers to maintain price discipline, fragile demand raises questions about the sustainability of price increases. In the coming weeks, public projects and infrastructure investments may provide short-term support, while private sector demand remains under interest rate pressure. If construction activity increases as expected, supply tightness could cause sudden price movements.
Announcements of major infrastructure projects and state-level incentives may increase rebar demand in the short term. However, due to high borrowing costs and interest rate pressures, private sector purchases remain cautious. Combined with supply constraints, this could lead to sudden price swings and highlights the importance of producers’ stock management strategies.
Comments
No comment yet.