In this new energy-driven environment, shaped by geopolitical disruptions and economic returns, the importance of scrap is increasingly on the agenda. The panel discussed in detail scrap steel systems in global and local markets, supply-demand balances, and the risks and opportunities for the sector in the coming years.
The Scrap Panel was moderated by Osman Türeyyen, General Manager of Metkim, and the panelists included Ali Sezen, Chairman of Gökova Dış Ticaret; Arihant Singhi, Ferrous Business Head of Gemini Corporation; Mete Bülent Adalı, Board Member of Ege Çelik; and Viktor Kovshevny, CEO of Ruslom.
Commenting on the US scrap market, EMR Commercial General Manager Tao Bai stated that the US has begun to implement a formal restriction on ferrous scrap exports. Bai continued "The US is therefore in a position to be a key supplier of high quality raw material globally. However, these new plants are all warehoused and distributed in the Midwest and Southern regions, which are closer to the inland logistics corridor and Southern regions, limiting the spacing with traditional East Coast scrap hubs for the time being, and many plants are proactively taking steps to run more of their equipment such as DRI (direct reduced iron) and HBI (hot briquetted iron) to realize an upward pressure. Ultimately, the balance will depend on how US steel mills respond to domestic demand for finished steel, global scrap prices and US prospects in the export market."
Tao Bai said, "China started to loosen import restrictions on ferrous materials as early as 2021 and expectations were high at the time. For example, a Platts forecast at the time predicted that imports would reach 5 million metric tons in 2022. However, the actual figures fell far short of these expectations. 2022 imports barely exceeded a million metric tons, equivalent to one deep-sea capacity per month. In 2023 the volume was even more, and in 2024 it was a quarter of that. Although the first snippets of 2025 saw a slight increase, monthly volumes remained below 20,000 metric tons, and there is a reason behind this big difference."
“Freight to China is almost twice as expensive compared to Türkiye”
China's recycling sector underwent a forced transformation due to the solid waste import bans imposed between 2017 and 2019, Bai noted, adding, "The closure of this supply chain disabled an entire ecosystem and has been very difficult to rebuild. In addition, the weakness in China's real estate sector continues to suppress steel demand, limiting incentives to increase EAF (electric arc furnace) capacity in the BOF (blast furnace-oxygen converter) dominated system. In addition, the Turkish market has consistently offered a premium in scrap prices over China - averaging around USD 20/ton in the last eight months according to my calculations. Freight to China from traditional scrap supply regions such as the US East Coast, Benelux and the UK is almost twice as expensive as to Turkey. This makes long-distance transportation economically unfeasible for China. China's access to suitable scrap sources is therefore limited to Japan, South Korea and parts of Southeast Asia."
Bai stated, "While China has announced plans to increase its share of EAF from 15% to 30% as part of its strategy to reduce carbon emissions, this transition depends on complementary infrastructure such as more efficient and cost-effective power generation and grid capacity. These elements will take time to develop. Moreover, the steel industry's current focus on optimizing existing capacity could further delay the implementation of these policies."
In sum, despite the regulatory easing, fundamental factors - industrial infrastructure, cost structure and demand conditions - suggest that the short-term impact on the global scrap trade will be limited.
“US reduces scrap purchase programs”
Sharing his 2025 forecasts for US scrap prices, Tao Bai noted, "The short to medium term scrap price outlook for 2025 is not very optimistic. In the first quarter of 2025, there was some optimism based on the HRC (hot rolled coil) price, but this quickly started to fade. It is also reducing low-priced import programs and putting downward pressure on prices. With collection slowing in the summer months, a meaningful increase in scrap supply on the East Coast is unlikely - at least until export sentiment strengthens markedly. The market is likely to remain in a moderately desirable correction theory. The previously overheated domestic market on the one hand, and the undervalued export market on the other. The summer lull will further delay this rebalancing process."
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