Global steel prices are set to stabilize on the 2023 calendar after falling more than 40% from their early April peaks of $1,000 per tonne in December 2022 to $570-590.
Following the global trend, domestic steel prices are only expected to soften by at least 2-4% per year in FY2024 (for flat steel), after seeing a drop of over 30% from the historic highs of April last December.
According to Crisil, flat steel prices rose 25% in just two months at the start of the Russia-Ukraine dispute, but cooled by the fall in raw material prices, the Indian government's imposition of export duties, and the incremental increase.
“While coking coal prices have been on a downward trend for most of this fiscal year, short-term volatility has been observed in anticipation of supply chain disruptions. "The relaxation of China's unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal will not only increase further volatility but will also change the supply chain once again."
However, since China's unofficial ban, Australian miners and traders have diverted materials to other Asian and South American destinations. China, for its part, began to rely on Russian and Mongolian coking coal supplies.
The CRISIL report highlights that domestic iron ore prices, as well as coking coal, have risen steadily since the abolition of the export duty, which came into effect in November 2022. Prices are expected to increase further with the healthy domestic demand in the year before the election and the improvement in global iron ore prices, which have increased by 20% in the last two months.
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