Summer slowdown in the European steel market: Weak demand, rising regulatory pressure

The European steel sector has presented a market outlook shaped in the short term by weak demand conditions, under the combined impact of price pressures and rapidly changing regulations. In the hot-rolled coil (HRC) and plate segments, CBAM, new safeguard measures, and uncertainties related to energy costs have weighed on demand, while buyers were mainly observed to be active for pre-summer restocking. In Germany, HRC prices this week remained in the €710–720/t EXW offer range, while transaction levels declined to €680–700/t EXW; in Italy, deals were recorded at levels falling to €675–695/t EXW.

This situation has even reduced trade flows between northern and southern regions within Germany and the Netherlands. The slowdown in logistics has strengthened regionalization in supply chains, leading production to shift more toward local and city-based distribution models.

In CRC and galvanized products, prices generally moved sideways. In Germany, CRC rose to €785/ton EXW, while in Italy it remained stable but showed a weak trend. HDG stood at around €790/tEXW in both countries but declined on a weekly basis. In the plate market, Germany remained stable at €765/t EXW, while Italy fell to €735/t EXW.

In Poland, iron prices continued to move sideways at €670–675/t CPT, unchanged from the previous week.

Due to stricter EU safeguard measures set to take effect on July 1, steel prices in Italy are expected to rise during the summer months. This outlook is supported by reduced import quotas and increased quota-overrun tariffs. Meanwhile, as the EU prepares to expand the scope of CBAM to downstream products containing iron and steel, stricter controls against risks such as “resource shifting” and the application of default emissions calculations are planned to prevent carbon leakage. This is also expected to impact the scrap market.

Overall, taking into account the summer period and prevailing uncertainties, the European steel market is expected to maintain a low-demand and sideways-to-weak pricing trend in the short term.