This logistics bottleneck is causing disruptions for Chinese exporters, particularly to the Middle East, and is forcing companies to target alternative buyer regions such as Southeast Asia.
In China, local hot rolled coil (HRC) prices are supported by rising incentive expectations ahead of the Two Sessions, yet high production rates and bloated inventory levels indicate a cautious outlook regarding the sustainability of price increases. With shipments along the Gulf route largely disrupted, freight rates via Djibouti rose from USD 30/t to USD 50/t within a few days; Chinese-origin lots reached USD 470–475/t CIF (GCC), while Indonesian-origin lots reached approximately USD 485/t CIF. The narrowing of insurance coverage in the region has led many Chinese exporters to suspend new offers, with analysts emphasizing that short-term export weakness may create supply pressure in the domestic market.
Meanwhile, in Singapore, rebar prices increased due to expectations of geopolitical risk-driven hikes, although buyers are acting more cautiously against potential new increases. In Latin America, anti-dumping measures on Chinese-origin products have opened the market for alternative suppliers such as South Korea and Vietnam. Additionally, rising coal prices, low port inventories, and Indonesia’s export restrictions prioritizing domestic demand are collectively exerting upward pressure on raw material costs. In India, domestic price increases remain limited (HRC USD 573–608/t EXW), while export demand stays weak; base offers to the EU decreased to USD 570/t FOB, and sales to the Middle East and Southeast Asia struggle to exceed USD 485/t FOB.
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