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Global markets focus on intense data agenda

While a mixed course was followed in the global markets after the hawkish monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, today's intense data agenda will have an impact on the decisions of investors.

Global markets focus on intense data agenda

While the Fed's announcement that it will tighten its monetary policy increases the selling pressure on risky assets, technology stocks lead the decline in stock markets around the world.

While Fed officials continued their verbal guidance yesterday, it is priced in bond markets that the Fed will increase interest rates by at least 23 basis points in March with a 93 percent probability.

Fed Vice President Candidate Lael Brainard signaled that he is open to a rate hike in March, in the session he attended in the US Senate. Pointing out that several interest rate hikes are foreseen throughout the year, Brainard said that he thinks they will be able to raise interest rates as soon as their asset purchases are completed.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also noted that he expects four rate hikes in 2022, starting in March, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans stated that he had reservations about raising interest rates in March, although he expects a similar number of rate hikes.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) data released yesterday in the USA gave a positive signal on the inflation side, albeit partially. Although the PPI in the USA increased by 0.2 percent on a monthly basis and by 9.7 percent annually, it remained below expectations.

The balance sheet season, which will be active from today, is expected to erode the selling pressure in the stock markets with strong fourth-quarter profit expectations. US investment banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will release their fourth-quarter financial results today.

The dollar index, which carried the downward trend for the fourth consecutive day, stabilized at 94.7, the lowest level since November 2021, while the ounce price of gold rose to $1,828 with the support it found from the weakening dollar. The US 10-year bond yield was stabilized at 1.72%.

With these developments, the S&P 500 index lost 1.42 percent, the Dow Jones index by 0.49 percent and the Nasdaq index by 2.51 percent in the New York stock market yesterday. Index futures contracts in the US are flat today.

While a mixed course was observed in the European stock markets yesterday, the eyes were turned to the speech of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Yesterday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in a statement that energy prices are expected to play an important role in inflation. Expressing that the inflation pressure has increased relatively for the next 12 months, Guindos noted that the risks are balanced in the medium term.

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in England, which was closed before the sales deepened in the New York stock market, gained 0.16%, the DAX 30 index in Germany increased by 0.13 percent, and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy gained 0.47 percent, while the CAC 40 index in France gained value. fell 0.50 percent. European indices are negative in futures today.

While Asian stock markets follow a negative course in line with the US stock markets, the macroeconomic data announced in China is eroding the downward pressures.

While China's foreign trade surplus in December broke a record with 94.5 billion dollars, exports increased by 20.9 percent and imports by 19.5 percent in December compared to the same month of the previous year.

On the other hand, PPI in Japan increased by 8.5 percent year on year and decreased by 0.2 percent on a monthly basis.

The Central Bank of South Korea, on the other hand, increased the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, while increasing the interest rate for the second consecutive year. In the statement made by the Central Bank of South Korea, it was stated that the policy rate hike could continue, and that the inflation pressure was stronger than previous forecasts.

With these developments, Shanghai composite index fell 0.46 percent in China, Nikkei 225 index lost 1.32 percent in Japan, Kospi index lost 1.49 percent in South Korea and Hang Seng index lost 0.60 percent in Hong Kong.

Domestically, the BIST 100 index, which gained 0.31 percent yesterday, carried its upward trend for the ninth consecutive trading day and closed the day at 2,070.65 points.

According to the data released yesterday, industrial production in Turkey increased by 11.4 percent on an annual basis, exceeding the economists' expectation of 8.38 percent.

After completing the day at 13.5848 with an increase of 2.75 percent yesterday, the Dollar/TRY is trading at 13.55 at the opening of the interbank market today.

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