Coal power plants expect 45 billion dollars of loss

According to the report, with the introduction of a carbon price in Türkiye in 2026, coal power plants are expected to lose a total of 45 billion dollars by the end of their license period. According to the report, with the introduction of the carbon price, all but two coal power plants in Türkiye will incur losses by 2026.

Starting in 2026, the study sets the carbon price in Türkiye at just one-third of the current carbon price in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) until 2035. After 2035, this price rises to only half of the EU ETS. Even a carbon price assumed at such a low level can lead to losses for power plants. In the coal phase-out scenario, the share of domestic resources in electricity generation is projected to increase from 51.3 percent to 73.6 percent between 2021 and 2035.

In her statement on the topic, SEFiA Director Bengisu Özenç drew attention to the possible negative economic and social consequences of delaying coal phase-out plans, which are technically feasible for Türkiye and inevitable in line with global developments. Özenç said, "Türkiye's 2053 net-zero target is not only important for climate goals, but also for maintaining its competitiveness in a changing global trade order. The first step towards achieving this goal is to clearly define an official position on coal phase-out in electricity supply and to plan towards this goal."

Emphasizing the coal phase-out mechanisms that Türkiye can also benefit from, İbrahim Çiftçi, Director of Financial Research at the Sustainable Economics and Finance Research Association (SEFIA), suggested: "Instead of planning new coal-fired power plants, Türkiye should plan for the transition that it has committed to with a net zero target as soon as possible in order to maintain security of supply in energy, to ensure the continuity of the electricity sector, which is a sector with high debt ratios, and to prevent a crisis in this sector from threatening its economy by affecting the banking sector and secondary sectors that provide inputs."