While macroeconomic data showing that the economic activity in the USA is still strong supports the expectations that the Fed may increase it by 75 basis points in December, it is observed that a sales-weighted course is dominant in the bond and stock markets.
In developed economies, which are caught between inflation and recession, it is noteworthy that inflation concerns once again prevailed, while the 10-year bond yield of the USA again exceeded the 3-month treasury bill yield.
While the expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December decreased to 47 percent in the pricing in money markets, it is predicted that the bank will increase interest rates by 75 basis points with a 53 percent probability.
According to the data released yesterday, the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the USA decreased to 217,000 in the week ending October 29, contrary to expectations. showed that he remains.
In the US, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index also decreased by 2.3 points month-on-month to 54.4 in October, the lowest level since May 2020, but pointed out that the service sector continues to grow.
It is stated that the statements of the Fed officials, who will begin to give verbal guidance as of today, are expected to have an impact on asset prices, while possible additional sanctions against Russia may increase the volatility in the markets.
Accordingly, with the news flow that the G7 countries may impose a ceiling price on Russian oil, the price of Brent oil per barrel increased by 1.6 percent in the new day and traded at $ 95.5, while Russia's counter-steps are expected to increase oil prices even more.
Russia has announced that it will not sell oil to countries that apply ceiling prices. On the other hand, it is stated that China and India, which are the biggest importers of Russian oil, do not view the ceiling price application positively.
With these developments, a sales-weighted course was followed in the New York stock market yesterday, while the S&P 500 index depreciated by 1.06 percent, the Nasdaq index by 1.73 percent and the Dow Jones index by 0.46 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with an increase.
On the European side, while the Bank of England (BoE) raised the policy rate by 75 basis points to 3 percent yesterday, a mixed course was observed in the equity markets.
In the statement of BoE, it was emphasized that the country may remain in recession for the next two years, while it was stated that the final interest rate is expected to be below the pricing in the market.
On the other hand, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that they will do whatever it takes to control inflation, while the European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue to give verbal guidance.
Lagarde mentioned that they still need to go a long way in raising interest rates and stated that they can take extra steps, including downsizing the balance sheet.
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index increased by 0.62 percent in England, the DAX 40 index decreased by 0.95 percent in Germany, the CAC 40 index decreased by 0.54 percent in France and the FTSE MIB index decreased by 0.43 percent in Italy. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with an increase.
In Asian stock markets, volatility is observed to be high on the last trading day of the week. Hang Seng index, which made its lowest closing since 2009 at the beginning of the week, increased by more than 11 percent compared to the previous week's closing, with the continuation of purchases that increased its effect at this level.
The upward trend in the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets gained momentum with the strengthening of the expectations that the "zero Kovid-19" policy could be relaxed in China.
While it is seen that technology companies came to the fore in the said rise, the Hang Seng Technology index is watching 9 percent above the previous closing.
In line with the news flow in China, copper prices are also recovering, while copper is currently at $3.51 a pound, up 2.4 percent.
According to the macroeconomic data announced in Japan, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the service sector rose to 53.2.
With these developments, the Shanghai composite index increased by 2.5 percent in China, the Hang Seng index increased by 6.1 percent in Hong Kong and the Kospi index increased by 0.5 percent in South Korea, while the Nikkei 225 index in the Japanese stock market, which was closed yesterday due to the public holiday, It lost 1.8 percent.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index, which was in an upward trend yesterday, broke the closing record by closing the day at 4,105.46 points with an increase of 0.82%, and brought its highest level to 4,116.49.
According to the domestic data released yesterday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.54 percent monthly and 85.51 percent annually, in line with the expectations.
Dollar/TL is traded at 18.6120 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 18.6174 with a decrease of 0.1 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that the real effective exchange rate in the country, factory orders in Germany abroad, non-farm employment, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data in the US employment report will be followed today. He said that 4,080 and 4,050 points are in the support position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Germany, factory orders for September
11.55 Germany, October services sector and composite PMI
12.00 Eurozone, October services sector and composite PMI
13.00 Euro Zone, September PPI
14.30 Turkey, October real effective exchange rate
15.30 US, October nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings