While the recession risk, which continues to increase around the world, continues to be influential on pricing, investors seem to be cautious before the Fed's interest rate decision to be announced tomorrow.
In bond markets, the gap between the US 10-year bond rate and 3-month treasury bills continued to narrow and decreased to 34 basis points, while the pricing in question indicates that the expectation that the US economy will enter recession continues to strengthen.
While it is predicted that the Fed will be content with a 75 basis point increase in interest rates with an 80 percent probability tomorrow, in the pricing in the money markets, it is predicted that the bank will increase interest rates with 50 percent probability and 75 basis points with a 42 percent probability at the September meeting.
On the other hand, in the accelerating balance sheet season, the profitability and expectations of companies have an impact on the direction of the markets.
Yesterday, Walmart, one of the major retail chains of the USA, decreased its profit expectations due to rising inflation. In the statement made by the company, it was stated that food inflation reached double-digit and higher levels compared to the end of the first quarter.
The profitability of Microsoft and Alphabet, which are expected to announce their balance sheets after the markets close today, are also expected to increase the volatility in the markets.
While the dollar index remained flat before the Fed's policy decisions, the price of Brent oil per barrel rose by 1.4 percent to $ 101.70 per barrel.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.13 percent and the Dow Jones index by 0.28 percent in the New York stock market yesterday, while the Nasdaq index lost value by 0.43 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a decrease.
In addition to the recession concerns in Europe, the energy supply problem also affects pricing.
Russian energy company Gazprom announced that it has received documents from Siemens company regarding the turbine to be shipped for Nord Stream, but that the document in question "raises more question marks while not reducing the risks identified earlier."
The company also stated that a turbine engine used for the Nord Stream pipeline was stopped for more technical reasons, and therefore the amount of natural gas delivered through the line will decrease, and that as of July 27, a maximum of 33 million cubic meters of natural gas can be shipped daily through the Portovaya compressor station.
Following these developments, natural gas contracts for August delivery in Europe increased by 12.6 percent to 179 Euros, while concerns about energy needs started to increase due to the approaching winter in Europe.
With these developments, the concern that industrial production may be interrupted in the winter months in the region due to the lack of natural gas is increasing.
Yesterday, DAX 30 index depreciated by 0.33 percent in Germany, FTSE 100 index increased by 0.41 percent in England, CAC 40 index increased by 0.33 percent in France and FTSE MIB 30 index increased by 0.80 percent in Italy. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a decline.
Equity markets in Asia follow a mixed course. After the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba announced that it would apply for a primary listing on the Hong Kong stock market, Alibaba shares rose close to 5 percent in the new day, while the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets rose, led by technology shares.
Analysts said that with Alibaba's step, Chinese investors will have easier access to company shares.
On the other hand, while South Korea grew by 0.7 percent on a quarterly basis in the second quarter of the year, the expectation that the South Korean Central Bank's policy area would be wider during the monetary tightening process supported the risk appetite. It has also been announced that companies in the country with financial difficulties will be given credit support by the government.
With these developments, Shanghai composite index gained 0.6 percent in China, Hang Seng index gained 1.7 percent in Hong Kong and Kospi index gained 0.2 percent in South Korea, while Nikkei 225 index gained 0 percent in Japan. ,2 fell.
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-heavy course yesterday, finished the day at 2,548.49 points with an increase of 1.27 percent.
Dollar/TL is trading at 17,8480 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 17.8039 with an increase of 0.35 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that the housing price index in the country, the S&P Case-Shiller 20 city housing price index in the USA, the Richmond Fed manufacturing industry index and new home sales data will be followed today, and technically, the 2.550 and 2.570 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance levels. He reported that 2,480 points are in the support position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, may housing price index
16.00 US, May S&P Case-Shiller 20 city home price index
17.00 US, July CB consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index
17.00 US, June new home sales
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