The Australian government anticipates a gradual moderation in iron ore prices as global demand weakens. According to the latest Resources and Energy quarterly report from the industry ministry, it is projected that the spot prices for 62% Fe iron ore fines in 2023 will average around $100 per tonne. By 2025, the benchmark iron ore price is expected to decline to an average of approximately $76 per tonne.
Australia and Brazil, the world's two largest iron ore producers, are expected to continue increasing their export volumes by an annual rate of 3.4%. The global iron ore trade is also forecasted to grow at a rate of 2.6% annually until 2025, with new supplies emerging from Australia, Brazil, and Africa.
Australia's iron ore exports are set to rise at an average annual rate of 2.3%, reaching 946 million tonnes by 2025. In terms of earnings, Australia's iron ore export forecast for 2023-2024 has been revised upward to AUD 120 billion ($75.68 billion) due to a more favorable exchange rate, slightly higher prices, and a modest increase in volume. As for 2024-2025, iron ore export earnings are estimated to be around AUD 99 billion.
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