Dirty fossil fuel use by China's major coal-consuming industries, including electricity, steel, cement and coal chemical production, could peak around 2024, a government researcher said on Wednesday.
Beijing has pledged to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and gradually reduce coal use after 2026.
Four industrial sectors accounted for more than 86% of total coal consumption and more than 70% of total carbon emissions in China, the world's largest coal user and greenhouse gas emitter.
Coal use in these four sectors could peak at 2.48 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, Cao Dong, chief expert of the China Academy of Environmental Planning, a research institute affiliated with the Chinese Ministry of Environment, said in a seminar.
"Coal use in the steel and cement sectors was supposed to peak (in 2020 and 2021), followed by coal chemicals by 2024," Cao said. Said.
However, Cao said the electricity sector will peak around 2028 due to rising electricity demand and concerns about energy security, adding that carbon emissions will reach a high level a year after coal use peaks.
More than 60% of China's electricity comes from coal-fired power stations, and this year's coal shortages have caused widespread blackouts.
Cao also estimates that a total investment of 24.1 trillion yuan ($3.77 trillion) will be required to control coal consumption in the four sectors by 2035.
But the transition could generate an annual gross domestic product of 159.5 billion yuan from industries such as renewable energy and equipment manufacturing.
Decreasing coal use in key industries will reduce exports by an average of about 1.03 trillion yuan per year through 2035, further limiting demand for raw materials such as iron ore and limestone.
Iron ore imports have already dropped 4% in the first 10 months of 2021 as Beijing limits steel production amid pressure to cut emissions.
($1 = 6.3858 yuan)
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