The Russian billet export market has come under renewed pressure over the past week as international price trends, regional demand weakness, and competitive supply from Asia have pushed sellers to lower their offers. Despite the reductions, buyer interest remains limited, and expectations continue to point toward further price declines in the near term.
Russian billet suppliers have revised their export offers for June shipments to approximately USD 445–450/t FOB Black Sea, down from USD 450–455/t FOB the previous week. Although these reductions signal sellers’ responsiveness to shifting global dynamics, they still fall short of buyers' expectations in key markets such as Türkiye and Egypt.
Billets from Donbas were offered at around USD 440-445/t FOB Black Sea.
Türkiye, a crucial export destination for Russian semi-finished steel, has shown limited appetite for imports amid falling rebar and scrap prices. No new billet offers were made from Russia during the week.
The Turkish integrated producer Kardemir set its EXW price for steel billet at USD 500/t, which corresponds to imported billet levels around USD 465–470/t CFR, or approximately USD 445–450 FOB/t.
The pressure on Russian exporters has been compounded by a sharp fall in Asian billet prices, particularly from Chinese suppliers. This decline is largely driven by recent changes in China’s VAT regulations, which have impacted the country’s export policy and resulted in more competitive overseas offers.
These developments have directly affected Asian offers to Türkiye and the broader MENA region, putting additional strain on Russian pricing strategies. Some Russian producers have yet to react officially, and discussions are expected to continue in the coming weeks.
Until clear signs of demand recovery emerge (particularly from Türkiye and MENA) and unless Chinese competition stabilizes, the Russian billet market is expected to remain under downward pressure, with USD 445/t FOB Black Sea now viewed as a soft ceiling rather than a floor.
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