Following a limited recovery in May, the scrap market showed renewed weakness in June. Despite increased trading volumes, ongoing global uncertainties and regional developments continued to exert pressure on the market.
Although some purchases took place in Türkiye ahead of the Eid al-Adha holiday, expectations of downward price movements in the US domestic scrap market and the seasonal slowdown in China led Turkish producers to adopt a cautious approach. During this period, the US decision to raise tariffs on steel imports limited the decline in scrap prices, resulting in sideways price stabilization in the domestic market.
Meanwhile, rising freight costs pushed US suppliers away from export markets, causing supply-side tightening that helped stabilize scrap prices at bottom levels. Turkish producers evaluated Chinese billet offers both as a lower-cost alternative and as a bargaining tool to exert pressure on scrap suppliers.
However, the sudden Israeli airstrike against Iran on June 13 brought regional risks back into focus. This development dampened demand in Türkiye’s construction sector, while the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s postponement of planned interest rate cuts—aimed at stabilizing the Turkish Lira and financial conditions—added to demand-side fragility in the domestic market.
On the other hand, weaker-than-expected US macroeconomic data led to a depreciation of the dollar and increased currency-based costs in European markets, providing short-term support for scrap prices. As July-loading purchases approached, Turkish mills re-entered the market, causing a limited upward movement in prices. However, this recovery was not sustainable due to weakness in the finished steel segment.
The beginning of July is expected to remain sluggish. Market direction will largely depend on potential decisions by the Central Bank of Turkey, dollar trends, and the course of US-China trade negotiations. While Turkish producers remain the most active buyers in the deepsea scrap market, weak overall demand continues to pose a fundamental barrier to a sustained rise in scrap prices.
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