“The US market will almost completely close.” The warning came from Yalçın Ertan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Aegean Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metals Exporters' Association. Turkish steel exporters are in a state of great anxiety following the announcement by US President Donald Trump. Trump stated that he intends to increase the steel tariff rate on Türkiye from 25% to 50%. If this decision is implemented, Turkish steel could completely disappear from the US market.
Ertan reminded that a similar scenario happened in 2018:
"In August 2018, the US raised the steel tariff on Turkey to 50%. In May 2019, this rate was lowered again to 25%, but unfortunately, our exports to the US dropped significantly. In 2017, our annual exports were 2.4 million tons, but by 2019 they had fallen to around 450,000 tons."
Yalçın Ertan drew attention to the difficulties faced by the sector and said the following:
"Türkiye's iron and steel production was 38.2 million tons in 2018. However, this figure dropped to 34 million tons by 2023. This represents an 11% decrease in production. Of course, the US customs policy is not the only factor in this decline; however, with the Trump administration, the competitive environment in the US market has tightened."
Ertan also touched on the developments in the US:
"Steel production in the US increased by 6% in the same period. Plants that were about to be closed were revived. Existing plants increased their capacity. In this process, the steel and coal lobbies gained an advantage by exerting strong pressure on Trump. But this has cost the American people. Steel products are now 80 percent more expensive. End consumers are victimized. They want to buy Turkish steel under the same conditions as other countries."
Tapping Alternative Markets Necessary but Challenging
Faced with the possibility of the US raising the customs duty on Turkish steel imports to 50% again, the sector has started to turn to alternative markets. Exporters, who are particularly concentrated in African, Middle Eastern and Asian markets, are working at full speed to establish a presence in new destinations. However, this transition process is not easy. New challenges such as logistics costs, payment security and the competitive environment in different markets have started to be encountered.
"Except for some strategically determined products, the US no longer leaves much chance for Turkish steel. In all other areas, our export opportunities are shrinking. As a sector, we are trying to turn to alternative markets, but this process is quite challenging."
Steel Exports to the US Fall by 71%, Millions of Dollars Lost
According to the data:
January-September 2017: Türkiye exported a total of $995 million worth of steel to the US.
2018 Same Period: This figure dropped to 737 million dollars.
2019 First Nine Months: Steel exports to the US were limited to only 210 million dollars.
These data show that steel exports to the US decreased by 71 percent. In total, approximately 785 million dollars of revenue was lost.
Industry representatives emphasize that the new US tariff threat could disrupt not only Türkiye but also global trade balances. Turkish steel exporters say their capacity to turn to markets outside the US is limited, which could lead to serious operational difficulties in the event of a new tariff increase.
The Past Warns Us for Today
At the end of his speech, Yalçın Ertan said: "We see the possibility of the US increasing tariffs on Turkish steel as a risk. The past has warned us about this. If the increase materializes, the US market will be almost completely closed. As a sector, we are trying to turn to alternative markets, but this transition process is not easy. Both diplomacy at the political level and strategic planning at the commercial level are essential for the Turkish steel industry to survive."
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