As shipping rates from Asia surge, Russian suppliers have been able to lift their own offers in markets such as Türkiye, the Middle East, and North Africa. Prices for Russian hot-rolled coil and semi-finished products in these regions have risen by roughly $5–15 per tonne. Although higher prices may persist while geopolitical tensions continue, buyers in these markets are still approaching purchases with caution.
The increase in freight rates for Chinese shipments has been a key factor behind the change. Following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, transportation costs for Chinese hot-rolled coil delivered to destinations including Türkiye, North Africa, Lebanon, and Syria rose significantly, pushing delivered prices up by around $20–30 per tonne. This shift has created an opportunity for Russian exporters to improve their price levels while maintaining competitiveness.
Russian hot-rolled coil for April–May shipment is currently offered to regular buyers in the Middle East and North Africa at approximately $490–495 per tonne on a CFR basis, while buyers in Türkiye are receiving offers at around $485–490 per tonne. One Russian steel mill that is not subject to sanctions has reportedly raised its offers to importers in Türkiye for May deliveries from about $525 per tonne to roughly $535–540 per tonne CFR. Meanwhile, Chinese hot-rolled coil offers to Türkiye have recently been quoted in the range of $530–545 per tonne CFR. With Chinese material becoming more expensive due to higher freight costs, Russian producers have gained an advantage and, in some cases, are aiming to secure higher premiums.
At Russia’s Black Sea ports, export prices for hot-rolled coil currently range between $440 and $515 per tonne FOB, depending on the supplier. Average FOB prices increased slightly in February, rising by around 3% to approximately $452 per tonne. Over the past several years, export prices have trended downward overall, averaging about $705 per tonne in 2022, $587 in 2023, $525 in 2024, and roughly $460 in 2025.
The situation in the Middle East may also disrupt Chinese steel exports. In 2025, Chinese mills exported around 21.5 million tonnes of hot-rolled coil, with approximately 17% of this volume shipped to Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran, and Bahrain. Some Chinese producers have reportedly paused signing new contracts with buyers in the region, while several vessels already carrying Chinese steel have altered their routes. These developments have made buyers in other markets more cautious about purchasing Chinese material.
Prices for steel semi-finished products are also expected to rise. Russian billet exporters to Türkiye are considering increasing their offers by about $5 per tonne to around $475 per tonne CFR. This move reflects expectations that Turkish buyers may face fewer low-cost alternatives and could avoid sourcing material from China. Offers for a standard 50,000-tonne cargo of Chinese billet delivered to Türkiye in May have recently climbed to about $500–510 per tonne CFR, compared with the latest concluded deal at roughly $490 per tonne.
Market analysts suggest that the current price environment could continue as long as tensions in the Middle East disrupt logistics and trade flows. Russia, China, and India remain among the largest suppliers of hot-rolled coil to Türkiye and the broader MENA region. Purchasing decisions will likely depend on the level of discounts offered by Russian suppliers and the evolution of freight costs for Asian exporters. If shipping routes normalize or Chinese mills adjust their pricing, the advantage currently enjoyed by Russian suppliers could diminish.
Russian exporters may also benefit from reduced Iranian supply. Iran produced approximately 31.8 million tonnes of steel in 2025, ranking tenth globally, and any decline in its export volumes could create additional opportunities for other suppliers.
Despite these developments, demand in Türkiye and the MENA region remains cautious. In Türkiye, high interest rates and uncertainty surrounding the construction sector continue to weigh on steel consumption. Meanwhile, buyers across the Middle East and North Africa are dealing with geopolitical uncertainty and financial pressures. Although lower offers from Asian suppliers could eventually encourage more purchasing activity, actual transaction volumes will depend heavily on freight rate movements and the willingness of buyers to accept higher prices.
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