The Black Sea billet market softened slightly this week after a few deals were heard at lower levels. Most tradable prices were around $430–435/t FOB Black Sea, although some mills were still trying to keep ideas closer to $440/t FOB.
In Türkiye, small CIS-origin cargoes continued to trade at $455–460/t CFR. These transactions showed that buying interest is still present, but buyers have become more cautious and are not ready to accept higher levels yet.
Freight is becoming a bigger factor. Rates from Novorossiysk to the Marmara region increased to roughly $22–25/t, with market participants pointing to the start of the storm season, possible delays, and ongoing security issues around the port. Some expect freight to rise further as winter conditions worsen.
Kardemir also added support to the market by increasing its billet price by $15/t after raising rebar prices the day before. This move pushed CIS suppliers to rethink their offers. Most Russian mills are now offering $440–450/t FOB for late January and early February shipment, and some believe sellers may even aim for $455/t FOB if demand in Türkiye and Chinese offers remain strong.
Even so, many buyers in Türkiye are not ready to accept the new levels. Several customers said the price jump came too quickly, and they are evaluating different options before committing to new purchases. Chinese billet at around $470/t CFR Türkiye for February shipment is widely viewed as unworkable due to longer lead times and higher risk.
In Egypt, the situation is even more difficult for CIS suppliers. No new offers from the region were reported, and buyers only saw Chinese billet at around $470/t CFR. Egyptian re-rollers said these levels do not fit their domestic market, and a workable import price would need to be closer to $420/t CFR.
Producers in Russia’s Far East had more success, selling about 26,000 t at $420/t FOB for December shipment.
Overall, the market is split between rising offers from suppliers and a cautious approach from buyers. Higher freight costs, a stronger rouble, and firmer domestic prices in Türkiye are supporting the upside, but resistance from importers in both Türkiye and Egypt is preventing prices from moving much higher for now.
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