Record increase in inflation expectations

Inflation expectations are also revised upwards following the increase in the exchange rate.

The August 2023 Market Participants Survey was answered by 40 participants, including representatives of the real sector, financial sector and professionals, and the results were evaluated by aggregating the responses of the participants.

The current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation of the participants was 59.46 percent in the current survey period, compared to 43.82 percent in the previous survey period.

The 12-month-ahead CPI expectation was realized as 42.01 percent in this survey period, while it was 33.21 percent in the previous survey period. 24-month-ahead CPI expectations were realized as 19.04 percent and 22.54 percent in the same survey periods, respectively.

In the August 2023 survey period, when the probability forecasts of the participants for 24 months ahead were evaluated, it was predicted that the CPI would increase between 16.00 - 20.99 percent with 27.84 percent probability, between 21.00 - 25.99 percent with 34.53 percent probability and between 26.00 - 30.99 percent with 18.85 percent probability.

Interest rate expectations also increased

The participants' expectation for the current month-end overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market was 19.34 percent in this survey period, while it was 18.94 percent in the previous survey period.

The CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate expectation for the current month-end was 19.19 percent in this survey period, while it was 19.17 percent in the previous survey period.