Russia’s billet export market continues its downward trend amid weak global demand. In particular, medium-sized steel producers have lowered their prices for August shipments to $443–450/t FOB. However, according to market sources, major producers, who need to secure large sales volumes to keep their production lines running, are expected to implement even more aggressive price cuts.
Similarly, suppliers based in Donbas are also reportedly preparing to reduce their prices for Türkiye. Nevertheless, these suppliers have also reduced their monthly billet allocations to the Turkish market, indicating a tightening on the supply side as well.
Large Russian mills and Donbas-based suppliers seem to be the only ones able to offer further discounts thanks to their production scale, while smaller players appear to lack such flexibility. As a result, price competition in the market is becoming more concentrated among specific producer groups.
On the Turkish side, buyers remain cautious. Following Kardemir’s recent billet sales, Turkish buyers are not rushing to set a new viable price level. Instead, they are aiming to purchase at around $450–460/t CFR or $430–440/t FOB Black Sea. However, Russian suppliers have yet to respond to these expectations and appear reluctant to meet them.
This mismatch in price ideas could lead to a decline in Russian-origin sales in the short term. Meanwhile, there are market rumors suggesting that 6,000 tons of billet from Donbas were sold to a Turkish Black Sea port at $446/t CFR (around $430/t FOB), but this deal has not been confirmed.
In conclusion, the billet market remains under downward pressure. Weak demand continues to weigh on prices, and only producers with scale advantages seem able to maintain pricing flexibility. The uncertainty in the Turkish market will likely remain a significant short-term challenge for Russian exporters.
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