The recession concerns, which have strengthened in global markets, continue to be influential on asset prices. While the expectations that the increasing recession risk, especially in the USA, will narrow the policy area of the central banks, feed the risk appetite, while the aggressive pricing regarding the interest rate hikes in the pricing in the money markets is softening.
While the market expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will increase interest rates by 75 basis points with a 95 percent probability at the meeting in July decreased to 85, the probability of a 50 basis point increase increased to 65 percent at the September meeting. In the last two meetings of the year, the market expectation that a 25 basis point increase will be made has strengthened.
After Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that they will make decisions from meeting to meeting, it is expected that the macroeconomic data to be announced this week and the verbal guidance of central bank officials will have an impact on the direction of the markets.
On the other hand, while the leaders came together at the G7 Leaders' Summit held in the German state of Bavaria, US President Joe Biden announced that the G7 would ban gold imports from Russia due to the Russia-Ukraine war. On the other hand, while the impact of the said step is expected to be low for technical reasons, the ounce price of gold finds buyers at $ 1,837, 0.5 percent above the closing on Friday.
It is expected that the news flow from the summit, which started yesterday and will end tomorrow, will have an impact on asset prices.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index gained 3.06 percent, the Nasdaq index by 3.34 percent and the Dow Jones index by 2.68 percent in the New York stock market on Friday. Index futures contracts in the USA, on the other hand, started the new week with a cautious rise.
In addition to the increasing inflation pressure in Europe, the increasingly complex energy supply security continues to complicate pricing in the markets.
While it is estimated that possible geopolitical developments in the region may have an impact on the direction of the markets, the statements of the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde placed the focus of the investors.
This week, the intense data calendar, especially inflation, and verbal guidance from ECB officials will be followed closely.
On Friday, European stock markets followed a buying weighted course in line with the global markets, with the DAX 30 index 1.59% in Germany, the FTSE 100 index 2.68% in the UK, the CAC 40 index 3.23% in France and the FTSE MIB index in Italy. The 30 index gained 2.33 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new week with a rise.
Asian equity markets started the week with a buying-heavy trend, as recession concerns strengthened. The continuation of the dovish stance of the central banks in the region and the lowering of borrowing rates by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) last week were effective in keeping the risk appetite strong.
On the macroeconomic data side, it is seen that the Chinese economy still bears the effects of the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic. While the industrial profitability in the country decreased by 6.5 percent annually in May, the profitability decreased from 3.5 percent to 1 percent since the beginning of the year. The leading index announced in Japan remained stable at 102.9.
On the other hand, Russia failed to pay a debt for the first time since 1918.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 1.7 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China rose by 1.1 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea by 1.9 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong by 2.5 percent, close to the closing.
The BIST 100 index, which followed a buying-weighted course in line with the world stock markets on Friday, finished the day at 2,554.08 points with an increase of 0.43 percent. On the other hand, Dollar/TL is trading at 16.2820 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 16.8862 with a decrease of 2.7 percent after the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency's (BDDK) decisions on loan use on Friday.
Analysts stated that the data agenda is calm in the country today, and durable goods orders in the USA, pending housing sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing industry index data will be followed abroad, technically, the BIST 100 index 2.500 and 2.480 levels are support and 2.560 points are in the resistance position. told.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
15.30 US durable goods orders for May
17.00 US, May pending home sales
17.30 US, June Dallas Fed manufacturing index
20.30 Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
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