Current indicators suggest that producers will continue demand-driven and flexible production policies while avoiding aggressive capacity expansions. Domestic demand is expected to be supported by public infrastructure projects, while any price increase will only be possible in the event of a clear increase in raw material costs. In exports, rather than a rapid recovery in 2026, selective sales strategies are expected to come to the fore; the sector will prioritize domestic market balance, margin protection, and cash management. Accordingly, 2026 will not be a year of volume growth, but one focused on price defense and efficiency.
The gradual recovery in the real estate sector supported domestic demand, while the cautious stance in private sector investments did not create pressure on prices. In the first week of the new year, rebar prices were set at USD 513–515 per ton. On the HRC side, prices in the Vietnamese domestic market stood at around USD 490 per ton, while China-origin HRC decreased from USD 470 per ton to USD 468 per ton. Imported India-origin HRC was observed at approximately USD 549 per ton.
On the raw material front, cost pressures remained limited. While 62% Fe iron ore traded at around USD 107 per ton, imported scrap prices stabilized near USD 378 per ton. The absence of sharp fluctuations in both scrap and iron ore allowed producers to carry out cost calculations on a more predictable basis.
From a foreign trade perspective, a weak outlook stood out. During the January–September 2025 period, Vietnam’s steel exports declined by more than 20% year on year to 7.9 million tons, while steel imports reached 11.21 million tons. Increasing trade measures and anti-dumping investigations in key markets, particularly the US and the EU, weighed on exports; although China remained the main supplier, its market share saw a decrease. In addition, the increase in production and sales recorded in the first quarter of 2025 indicates that the local market supported steel producers independently of exports.
This dynamic strengthens expectations that strategies focused on market share balancing, margin protection, and efficiency will be at the forefront in 2026.
Comments
No comment yet.