Market Sources Assess Impact of Türkiye’s Anti-Dumping Decision on Prices and Supply-Demand Balances
Market sources speaking to SteelRadar evaluated the potential effects of the anti-dumping decision on prices and supply-demand balances. One source shared numerical expectations, stating:"Our expectation was around 15–20%. Even in the stainless steel segment, such a high rate has not been observed. The annual capacity of Turkish re-rollers will not be sufficient for overall domestic consumption. We anticipate prices rising by approximately 20–25% over the next 1–2 months. Afterwards, as capacities fill up, prices will primarily depend on domestic market indices and the discretion of producers. The anti-dumping measure was necessary; however, the difference being this high is unusual. Sandwich panel producers will adjust their production and export pricing. For Magnelis, HTS codes should have been separated; instead, additional taxes were applied to products like Posmac. Conditions will be challenging for domestic project manufacturers."
Another source detailed the application, stating:
"Under the current conditions, almost none of the product groups can be imported from China. When the Ministry’s decision is published in the Official Gazette and the rates are set at 36%, 20%, and 11%, costs could reach breakeven levels and only limited trade would be possible. At present, imports at the discussed rates are impossible. The regulation does not differentiate between thin and thick products; some thicknesses not produced in Türkiye are also included. For example, products of 0.25 mm and below are included even though domestic production is not possible. Therefore, the measure was drafted without detailed differentiation. Only very thin products from China, particularly 0.25 mm and below, may enter; imports of thicker products are nearly impossible. Market direction will become clearer in the next 1–2 weeks. Demand is currently weak, so even if prices increase, trading will remain limited."
Regarding products originating from South Korea, another source commented:
"In Türkiye, significant imports of cold-rolled products from South Korea occurred in the past. Over the last three months, these purchases have nearly stopped, and Korean producers are reluctant to sell. Currently, most materials entering the market were shipped in Q1 and could be used to support price increases. Nevertheless, the overall market sentiment remains ‘watch and wait.’ No significant price increases have been observed from China; prices are being pushed up speculatively within Türkiye. If exports to Europe increase, a real domestic price balance may form; otherwise, this seems unlikely under current conditions. A $30–60/t increase is expected, while even a $20 rise in black sheet may be difficult."
In the cold-rolled (CR) segment, Posco’s pricing policy is expected to be a key factor. Sources noted:
"A stainless steel producer’s current price is around $625/t. If this policy continues, it will be difficult to maintain domestic market prices. Although the general expectation is for a 20–25% price increase, weak domestic demand and high-stock firms’ need to sell will prevent these levels from being quickly accepted. Price increases are expected in the CR segment, but the market will take time to absorb them. Since factories’ production programs are full until May, producers are likely to push prices higher. Given high inventory and weak demand, it will take time for increases to materialize in the market."
Similar perspectives were shared for the China side:
"There are doubts whether stainless steel producers can fully compensate prices. For instance, if the unit price reaches USD 700/t, total cost will be around USD 770/t; this may provide a limited advantage for turning to domestic purchases."
Another source assessed the dumping rates:
"For South Korea, 10–14%; for China, 30–36%. Türkiye wants to restrict imports, so the gap is not critical. For POSCO, the 10.48% rate is favorable. The main problem lies with small Korean exporters in the ‘others’ category, subject to 27%; this will make doing business in Türkiye nearly impossible. Price competition in standard cold-rolled steel is no longer feasible. Korean producers should focus on automotive and high-strength steel products."
Another source added:"The report sets the price pressure of imports on the domestic market at 10%, while the dumping rate is determined at 36%. The final decision will be made by the Competition Authority, and some lawyers suggest rates may be revised downward. Demand pressure exists, so prices may not rise sharply; however, I expect a USD 30–50 increase."
Although the closure notice has not yet been published, the development is seen as supportive for the market. Final rates may decrease slightly after appeals, but significant reductions are not expected. Measures for China can be applied directly, while the South Korea rate is already not very high.
In discussions with international suppliers and traders, it was emphasized that there is no need for panic, as the process has not yet reached a final decision, and more time is needed to find a solution.
Overall, the market expects the anti-dumping decision to push prices upward; however, due to weak demand, increases are likely to be limited in the short term. The full impact on the market will become clear after the official notice and implementation, and it will take some time for prices to fully absorb the changes.
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