According to market data, medium-heavy plate prices in China have declined by approximately 17% cumulatively over the past three years, while production has increased by 18.7%. This highlights the deepening imbalance between supply and demand in the sector.
Demand weakened in July, leading to a renewed increase in inventories, while producers began voluntarily reducing output to adapt to market conditions. Capacity utilization declined to 83.55%, reflecting a more cautious approach to production.
On the export side, tariffs and trade barriers introduced by several countries negatively affected China's heavy plate exports. As a result, the export-driven growth trend seen in recent years has weakened significantly.
At the same time, a clear divergence has emerged within the sector. Demand for high-value-added products, such as shipbuilding plate, continues to increase, while standard heavy plate products for general applications remain under intense price pressure. Market analysts believe this indicates that the transformation of China's steel industry toward higher-value products is accelerating.
According to information shared with SteelRadar by a Chinese industry contact, heavy plate prices in China are expected to establish a bottom in the range of RMB 3,400-3,500/mt in the short term. In particular, the pace of inventory reduction during the second half of August is expected to become the key indicator determining market direction.
In the longer term, the sector is expected to move away from a growth model focused solely on expanding production volumes in order to achieve sustainable development. Industry sources emphasize that shifting toward higher value-added products, optimizing product portfolios, and strengthening direct supply channels with end users will be critical to the industry's next phase of growth.
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