Russian billet prices remained stable in December

In December, average quotations for square billet offered by Russian suppliers from the Black Sea region remained largely unchanged, increasing marginally by $2/t month-on-month to $439/t FOB. Export prices stabilized within a narrow range, reflecting a balanced but constrained market environment.

Demand in the Turkish market was primarily focused on domestically produced semi-finished products and supplies from Malaysia. Although Russian billet prices remained competitive, Turkish buyers reduced purchases from Russia amid concerns over a potential tightening of EU import regulations. At the same time, the supply of Russian billet was limited due to declining export margins, driven by the appreciation of the Russian ruble.

In December, the US dollar briefly fell below 77 RUB before fluctuating around 80.7 RUB, which reduced ruble-denominated export revenues and made exports less profitable. This constrained supply and helped support billet prices despite weak demand.

Domestic Pressure in Russia, Competition in Türkiye

Steel consumption in Russia continues to decline, increasing pressure on producers to place volumes in export markets. According to forecasts by the Russian Steel Association (Russkaya Stal), steel consumption in Russia is expected to fall to 38 million tonnes in 2025, representing a 14% decline compared to 2024.

In contrast, Türkiye's steel industry continues to expand. Over the first ten months of 2025, Türkiye's production of square billet rose by 4.7% year-on-year to 19.88 million tonnes, intensifying competition in the domestic market and further limiting demand for imported material.

Market Developments During the Month

At the beginning of December, Russian billet prices edged up by $2.5/t to $440/t FOB, supported by steady demand for long steel products in Türkiye and persistently high scrap prices. However, demand for Russian-origin billet in Türkiye remained weak, while supply stayed limited.

Market participants reported contracts concluded with Chinese billet suppliers for February shipments. One deal was registered at $475/t CFR Marmara, a level above prevailing market prices. The higher price was attributed to the cargo composition, which included billet with high manganese content, as well as elevated freight costs estimated at $36/t for a shipment volume of 45,000 tonnes.

By the end of the month, Russian billet quotations stabilized at around $438/t FOB. No new transactions were reported at this level.