After the data and developments pointing to the persistence of inflationary pressures on a global scale, the outflow in the stock and bond markets deepened with the warnings of international institutions and organizations about the recession. After the international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings lowered its global economic growth expectations, the World Bank reported that the simultaneous increase in interest rates by central banks against high inflation strengthened the risk of global recession in 2023.
The price of gold fell to the lowest level since April 2020 at $ 1,660
Despite the risk of recession, the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points next week increased the pressure on commodity prices, while the price of gold fell to the lowest level since April 2020 at $ 1,660. The barrel price of Brent oil is trading at $ 89.9 yesterday, with a decrease of 4.4 percent, and traded at $ 90.3 today.
On the macroeconomic data side, retail sales in the US rose by 0.3 percent monthly in August, contrary to market expectations, while weekly jobless claims fell to 213,000 in the fifth week. Despite the positive data in question, industrial production in the country increased by 0.2 percent monthly in August, but remained below expectations. Manufacturing indices of the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed also pointed to the continuation of the contraction in the industrial sector.
US 10-year bond yield rose to 3.47 percent from 3.40 percent
Following the data giving mixed signals regarding the economic outlook, a selling trend was observed in the New York stock market, led by technology stocks yesterday. The Dow Jones index fell 0.56 percent, the S&P 500 index fell 1.13 percent and the Nasdaq index lost 1.43 percent. While the dollar index continued its horizontal movement in the narrow band and was found at 109.7, the US 10-year bond yield rose to 3.47 from 3.40 percent. It is seen that the index futures contracts of the USA started the new day with sellers.
On the European side, the developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and the measures taken within the scope of the energy crisis remain at the center of the agenda. The continuation of inflationary pressures in the region, where the threat of recession has increased, raises questions about the European Central Bank's (ECB) action area.
With these developments, the DAX 40 index decreased by 0.55 percent in Germany, the CAC 40 index decreased by 1.04 percent in France and the FTSE MIB 30 index decreased by 0.21 percent in Italy, while the FTSE 100 index increased by 0.07 percent in the UK. Although the euro/dollar parity went above the critical threshold of 1 yesterday, it fell back to 0.9980 today. Before the August inflation data in the Eurozone to be announced today, index futures contracts in Europe started the day with sales.
While the news flow about the meeting of Russian and Chinese leaders throughout Asia occupied the agenda, it was reported that China, Russia and Mongolia agreed to develop a common economic corridor. In the region where intense data flow is also observed, industrial production in China increased by 4.2 percent and retail sales by 5.4 percent on an annual basis in August, exceeding expectations. Indicators for the real estate sector, which is struggling with debt rollover problems, continued to deteriorate, while data on housing prices, new construction starts and real estate investments fell short of expectations.
Japan continues to signal "intervention" in the face of the new
In Japan, the "intervention" signals from the authorities continue in the face of the weak yen. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki Shunichi stated that they are ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the rapid volatility in the yen continues, and said that they will not ignore any option in this context.
With these developments, a selling trend was observed in Asian stock markets, while the Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 1.4 percent, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 1 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 0.9 percent.
It is trading at 18,2620 at the opening of the interbank market today
In Borsa Istanbul, where the domestic rates were high yesterday, the BIST 100 index closed the day at 3,363.12 points with a 2.43% depreciation. Dollar/TL is traded at 18.2620 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 18.2656 with an increase of 0.2 percent yesterday.
Analysts said that the expectations that central banks will continue to increase interest rates, which are between inflationary concerns and recession risk, caused the risk appetite in the markets to remain low. Pointing out that the Fed's next week's meeting is priced at 75 basis points with a 76% probability and a 100 basis point increase with a 24% probability in the money markets, analysts noted that the price movements in the bond and commodity markets should also be closely monitored.
Analysts stated that today, inflation in the Euro Area will be followed, and the Market Participants Survey of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will be followed in the domestic market, and technically, 3.360 and 3.280 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the support position, and 3.500 and 3.550 points are in the resistance position. reported.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, CBRT Market Participants Survey
12.00 Euro Zone, August CPI
14.30 Turkey, July house price index
17.00 USA, September University of Michigan consumer confidence index