Currently, billet prices show relatively limited fluctuations, generally not exceeding 15–20 USD. What has supported optimism in the Russian market is not the absolute price level, but rather the sustained upward trend that lasted for over two months. This momentum, combined with expectations of further growth, has influenced pricing decisions even at mills that do not export billet. The short-lived revival of the Russian market in August was partly driven by this factor.
In contrast, ferrous scrap prices in Türkiye have moved within a much wider band since the beginning of the year — more than 40 USD. Increased scrap inflows from Syria, coupled with a slowdown in Turkish steel production, have weighed on both demand and prices. As a result, Turkish scrap prices are now below 330 USD/t, with the exception of supplies from the United States. American exporters, backed by stronger domestic demand, typically halt shipments once prices fall under 335 USD/t, preventing deeper declines.
In Russia, the scrap-to-rebar ratio in summer 2025 averaged around 1:3 — one-third of the rebar price accounted for scrap. With quality scrap priced at around 17,000 rubles/t, rebar was trading near 51,000 rubles/t including VAT. In Türkiye, however, the ratio looks very different. At a rebar price of 523 USD/t, scrap costs about 329 USD/t, which represents nearly 63% of the rebar price — and this figure is before VAT.
Although Russian and Turkish EAF production technologies are largely comparable, the significant gap in scrap-to-rebar ratios reflects higher cost pressures in Russia, linked to logistics, sanctions, and financing conditions. Under these circumstances, Russian mills have little choice but to push scrap prices lower in order to remain competitive in export markets.
Comments
No comment yet.