China's steel exports reached 58.1 million tons in the first half of 2025, marking a 9% increase compared to the same period last year. Reports indicate that this rise in volume, despite growing trade protectionism from importing countries, was driven by continuous pre-sales and the competitive pricing of Chinese exporters. This also led to greater diversification in export destinations and product categories.
Key Export Destinations
The Middle East and Africa, with an 18% growth, became the main export markets for Chinese steel, surpassing Southeast Asia. Nigeria and Tanzania recorded dramatic increases of 108% and 60%, respectively. The UAE and Saudi Arabia saw import growth of 11% and 17%, respectively—driven by China's competitive prices and strong infrastructure demand in Saudi Arabia.
Turkey experienced a 3% decline in imports due to anti-dumping duties.
Southeast Asia recorded only 2% growth, as Vietnam's 25% drop in imports (due to anti-dumping tariffs on flat products) was offset by a 20% increase in Thailand.
Central and South America emerged as a new hub for Chinese exporters, with 24% growth. Peru and Chile posted strong double-digit increases of 37% and 23%, respectively. However, exports to Brazil declined due to the start of an anti-dumping investigation.
East Asia saw a 7% drop in imports, affected by anti-dumping duties in South Korea and Taiwan.
South Asia enjoyed a 7% growth, particularly due to a 35% surge in exports to Pakistan. In contrast, India reduced its imports by 24% with the help of safeguard duties.
Europe and CIS countries saw Chinese steel exports rise by 19% and 24%, respectively, in the first half of 2025.
Key Drivers of China’s Steel Exports
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Declining Domestic Demand & Overcapacity: The collapse of China’s real estate sector has weakened domestic demand, pushing steelmakers to export their surplus output.
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Tariff Uncertainty & Pre-Sales: High market volatility has prompted exporters to pre-sell cargoes to avoid potential tariff hikes.
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Competitive Pricing: China’s unmatched export offers have allowed it to outcompete rivals in regions like the Middle East. In June, China’s HRC export prices dropped to a five-year low of $445/ton FOB.
Outlook
Forecasts about the potential moderation of China’s steel export growth in the second half of 2025 vary. While some sources expect sustained momentum, others predict a slowdown. For instance, Chinese consultancy projects a 5 million ton decrease in exports during H2, bringing the annual total to 110.6 million tons.They attributes this expected decline to slowing global manufacturing and rising trade tensions.
A further reduction in crude steel output in China, aimed at combating market overcapacity and advancing decarbonization goals, may also reduce the immediate need for exports.
However, given that China has consistently defied expectations regarding export moderation, it may still be too early to make definitive projections.
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