In October 2022, it was forecast that the iron ore price would decrease to $55/t FOB and the coking coal price to $130/t by the end of the first quarter of 2023. Expectations have now been increased to $60/t and $140/t FOB for iron ore and coking coal, respectively.
The Australian government's forecasts are still well below both current commodity prices and analysts' expectations.
"Commodity price forecasts remain cautious and in the lower range of market forecasts," the agency said in a statement.
Australia's updated national budget for 2022-2023 is expected to have a positive trade balance of A$4.2 billion ($2.8 billion) for the first time since the global financial crisis in fiscal 2008. The main reason for this is said to be high iron ore and coal prices as a result of supply disruptions due to the war in Ukraine and inflation in the mining sector.
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