Toward year-end, China-origin HRC export prices were assessed at 469–471 USD/MT FOB, while in the Vietnam market, India-origin offers were heard at 485 USD/MT CFR and Indonesia-origin offers were reported around 490 USD/MT CFR.
Dexin announced its latest HRC price at 480 USD/MT FOB. The increase in Chinese HRC prices was supported by improved market sentiment following fiscal policy signals indicating that the government may expand infrastructure spending. Although the current price increase remains limited, the likelihood of a stronger upward trend re-emerging in early January is considered high. In this context, rebar prices in the Indian domestic market were recorded at 490–495 USD/MT, while China’s domestic prices were observed at 450–452 USD/MT. China-origin rebar export prices were reported at 475 USD/MT FOB.
Meanwhile, Japanese suppliers revised their export indications for H2 grade scrap slightly downward to 279 USD/MT FOB, citing weak demand in both domestic and export markets. Market participants expect volatility in the yen to add further downward pressure in the near term. According to a Reuters analysis, Japan Iron and Steel Federation Chairman Tadashi Imai stated that China’s planned steel export licensing system, set to take effect in 2026, is unlikely to effectively curb structural oversupply. He emphasized that the measure may not deliver a lasting improvement in global prices or overall market balance. In this context, Japan maintains the view that pressure from China’s excess production and low-priced exports will persist in international markets. These risks continue to weigh directly on Japanese producers’ profitability, with Nippon Steel projecting a loss of approximately 20 billion JPY for the 2025 fiscal year. This outlook suggests that near-term market conditions for Japan’s steel sector will remain challenging.
In India, the government introduced a three-year safeguard duty on certain steel products in response to pressure on the domestic industry from low-cost imports. The tariff is set to start at around 12 percent in the first year and will gradually decrease in subsequent years. The measure aims to limit the impact of low-priced imports, particularly from China, and to strengthen domestic producers’ pricing power. These longer-term tariffs are expected to have the potential to support profitability by easing import pressure and helping stabilize domestic price levels.
Taiwan’s steel sector continues to adopt a cautious stance on exports amid global trade policy uncertainties and sustained pressure from low-priced Chinese material. Aggressive pricing by Chinese producers has weakened the competitiveness of Taiwanese mills, especially in flat products and semi-finished steel, while compressing export margins. At the same time, increased anti-dumping and origin inspections across key markets such as the US and the EU have raised risk perceptions for Taiwan-origin shipments, leading to shorter-term contracts and delayed purchasing decisions. Under current market conditions, rebar prices in Taiwan stand at 520 USD/MT, while scrap prices are reported at 294 USD/MT. This price spread indicates that producers are attempting to protect margins, while maintaining a cautious approach on exports.
In Malaysia, the government continues to apply anti-dumping measures and import controls on certain steel products to reduce pressure on local producers from low-priced imports. These steps are intended to curb aggressive pricing of imported material, support domestic capacity utilization, and maintain price stability in the local market.
Throughout 2025, Vietnam’s steel sector remained under pressure from low-priced Chinese products. Export margins narrowed, while ongoing anti-dumping and origin investigations in the US and the EU constrained overseas sales. Although construction-related demand in the domestic market showed partial improvement in the second half of the year, this support remained weak and fragile. Overall, the sector moved through the year with cautious sales strategies and low profitability.
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