Most short-term scrap and rebar futures contracts on the London Metal Exchange have suffered losses over the past week to 18 November, with trading volumes increasing.
S&P Global Platts increased its November contract by $2/mt week on week to $491.50/mt. December contracts are up $3/mt week on week to $467.50/mt, January contracts are down $12.50/mt to $447.50/mt, February contracts are down from $22/mt $437.50/mt.
The backward structure for the November-December section of the forward curve remains largely flat on a weekly basis, while the retracement on the December-February section of the forward curve has strengthened significantly, indicating that futures traders still expect short-term scrap prices to soften.
Spot prices for physical imports of premium grade heavy melting scrap 1/2 (80:20) decreased by $2/mt week on week to $496.50/mt (CFR Turkey), as market sentiment turned negative ahead of the weekend.
The index rose to $500/mt CFR Turkey on 12 November as HMS 1/2 (80:20) prices for US origin cargoes for December shipment were heavily driven by shredded/bonus scrap. Platts valuation has been in the range of $494-500/mt CFR since October 27th.
"There are a lot of sellers in the market and maybe next week the market may drop - the rebar and billet markets are not good at all," a Turkish producer source said. January cargoes are offered by the buyer without interest, and December cargoes are not much left," he said.
Another representative from Turkey said, “Manufacturers are looking for $495/mt for premium HMS 1/2 80:20 if they need to buy, and there is some availability as there are some unsold Baltic cargoes, which may cause producers to resist and wait for lower prices. " said. The representative estimates that factories need up to five more December shipments.
During the week until November 18, weekly LME scrap futures volume reached 48,510 mt, a month high, up from 31,320 mt recorded last week.
Platts holds the November contract at $720.50/mt for the week, while the December contract is down $4.50/mt to $690/mt, the January contract is down $9/mt to $685.50/mt and the February contract is $9/mt lower. reduced to $680.50/mt.
The retrospective nature of the November-December section of the forward curve continued to strengthen this week, indicating that futures traders still expect short-term rebar prices to be less robust.
The flat structure of the December-January section of the curve shifted backwards throughout the week, while the decline in the January-February period remained intact.
Turkey's physical rebar export prices decreased $2.50/mt week on week to $727.50/mt FOB.
Weekly rebar futures volume on the London Metal Exchange this week reached 14,360 mt, up sharply from 5,950 mt last week. This was the highest weekly volume in six weeks since the seven days to Oct.
The daily spread between Turkish rebar exports and imported scrap was valued at $231/mt on November 18, down 50 cents/mt week on week.
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