European steel production declined due to high energy and raw material costs, as the Russian-Ukrainian war led to a reduction in steel exports in the Black Sea region. China's steel exports will increase significantly this year to fill the global deficit.
As China returns to environmental regulations and economic development weakens, the government should not curb exports as it did last year. But if export prices rise too sharply, Beijing may eventually take measures to curb exports.
Many steelmakers in China have extremely low stocks of raw materials, especially coal, which could affect the subsequent increase in steel production and push prices higher in the short term.
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