According to the 2025 Third Quarter Economic and Steel Market Outlook report published by the European Steel Association (EUROFER), apparent steel consumption is expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025, slightly above the previous forecast of 0.9%, while contraction in steel-using sectors has been revised to 0.7% (previously 0.5%). Growth expectations have been postponed to at least 2026. A recovery of 3.1% in apparent steel consumption and 1.8% in steel-using sectors is projected. Nevertheless, steel imports are expected to maintain their historically high market share of 25% in 2025.
EUROFER Director General Axel Eggert commented following the report’s release: “The lack of a steel agreement and the uncertainty surrounding the EU-U.S. Trade Joint Statement are harmful to our producers, who face a 50% tariff and are effectively excluded from secondary export markets. Continued diversion of cheap imports into the EU leads to the irreversible loss of strategic EU assets in favor of our direct competitors in the U.S., Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East. Closures and layoffs may rise, including in our sub-sectors. Our last resort against global overcapacity is the upcoming new EU trade measure. If the European Commission fails to deliver, our industry will have no support left.”
Overview of the EU Steel Market
In the first quarter of 2025, apparent steel consumption increased for the second consecutive quarter, rising 2.2% to 33.8 million tonnes. The demand outlook remains uncertain, with improvements expected no earlier than Q1 2026. Consumption volumes remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
Domestic deliveries rose 1.4% quarter-on-quarter following a 2% decline at the end of 2024. For the full year 2024, deliveries had fallen by 2.8%. Imports decreased by 0.6% after a 6.3% increase in Q4 2024. Nevertheless, the import market share remained historically high at 25% in Q1 2025.
U.S. Tariffs Impacting Sectors
In Q1 2025, production in steel-using sectors contracted by 3.2%, following a sharp 4.6% decline in the previous quarter and an overall slowdown of 3.6% in 2024. Uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs is affecting trade-sensitive sectors, particularly automotive. Automotive production fell 4.2%, while the construction sector saw a modest increase of 0.4%.
These developments pulled the Steel-Weighted Industrial Production Index (SWIP), which is expected to see another decline in 2025, down to 0.7%. Growth is projected to return at a rate of 1.8% in 2026.
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