Prices declined for channel, hot-rolled steel, galvanized steel, polymer-coated steel, pipes, and hardware. According to Metals & Mining Intelligence (MMI), steelmaking capacity utilization remains high at approximately 87%.
Rebar prices rise due to stockpiling by traders
In contrast, rebar prices rose by 3% in Moscow and 1.8% on an FOB Türkiye basis. This increase is attributed to traders increasing their stocks in anticipation of the peak season in the private construction sector. However, experts say that actual consumption levels have not changed.
Factors affecting domestic and export demand
The decline in demand in Russia is influenced by the reduction of subsidized mortgage programs and the high key interest rate, which are limiting activity in the construction sector. Additionally, weaker global demand, particularly in China, Europe, and the Middle East, along with Türkiye's newly imposed tariffs on Russian hot-rolled steel, are restricting export opportunities.
Further decline expected, but limited by production costs
Steel prices in Russia are projected to decline by another 3–5%, though a more significant drop is unlikely due to rising production costs. A potential reduction in supply due to maintenance shutdowns at production facilities may provide price support.
Rebar production and future trends
In 2024, Russia produced 10.7 million tons of rebar, compared to 10.9 million tons in the previous year. The demand for rebar will largely depend on mortgage programs and new housing construction plans. It's predicted that rebar prices could rise by at least 5% in the coming months, driven by expectations of seasonal demand growth in private construction.
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