Russian steel exports are expected to increase by 19% in 2025, according to updated projections from the Russian Steel Association («Русская сталь»). The previous forecast anticipated only a 2.5% rise, Interfax reported.
In 2024, Russia exported 20 million tonnes of steel. This year, shipments may grow by almost 4 million tonnes, supported in part by the cancellation of export duties effective from January 2025. Russia’s all-time export record was set in 2021, when overseas deliveries reached 31 million tonnes.
At the same time, the association reaffirmed its outlook for a sharp decline in domestic steel demand. Consumption in Russia is expected to fall by 14% (or 6 million tonnes) to 37.8 million tonnes in 2025, marking the lowest level since 2011.
The steepest drops in steel use are projected for:
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Automotive sector: –36.4%
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Mechanical engineering: –30%
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Construction and metal trading: –10.5%
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Energy sector: –19.4%
Steel production in Russia is also forecast to decrease, falling to 58 million tonnes in 2025 compared with 61 million tonnes a year earlier.
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