In August, rebar prices averaged RUB 48,000/t ($596/t) FCA (large trader sales), while mill-delivered prices fell to RUB 46,500/t ($577/t) CPT. Month-on-month, rebar quotations were down about 11%.
Overall rebar consumption in Russia during the first half of 2025 remained broadly stable year-on-year, supported primarily by large-scale infrastructure projects such as renovation programs and construction in newly developed territories. These projects are typically covered by long-term contracts at fixed, often low, prices.
Data from Gazprombank show that building permits in Russia dropped 50% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, totaling just 23 million square meters. In this environment, mills are forced to compete for limited orders by cutting prices aggressively.
Metallurgical companies link the downturn to a stagnating construction sector, which has yet to feel the impact of the Central Bank’s recent rate cuts. “Even if the key rate drops to 10–12% next year, industry representatives expect demand in steel-intensive sectors to recover to 2023 levels only in the second half of 2026,” said Boris Krasnozhenov, Head of Equity Market Research at Alfa-Bank.
Meanwhile, Russian rebar exports have rebounded following the removal of export duties in early 2025. Golenkov noted, however, that a strong ruble and low global prices prevent exports from significantly supporting domestic pricing.
According to Gazprombank’s Alexander Semin, Russian rebar exports grew 73% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 1.7 million tonnes. Average export prices at Black Sea ports slipped 4% to $520 per tonne. The main foreign buyers were CIS countries (62%) and markets in the Middle East and North Africa (31%), said Dmitry Orekhov, Managing Director at the NKR rating agency. He added that while overseas demand remains promising, particularly in regions with growing infrastructure needs, logistics bottlenecks and thin margins remain challenges.
With scrap prices currently depressed and a weaker ruble anticipated, mill-delivered rebar prices in Russia are projected to range between RUB 47,000–53,000/t ($583-658/t) (including VAT) by year-end.
Orekhov forecasts rebar prices will either hold steady or decline a further 5–7% in Q3, with some stabilization possible in Q4. However, he cautions that a return to high price levels is unlikely. “The market will remain under pressure until 2026–2027, when lower interest rates and new housing and infrastructure support programs could stimulate stronger demand,” he said.
USD 1 = RUB 80.50
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