Freight Rates Increase on Far East–China Routes
Freight rates for coal shipments from Russia’s Far Eastern ports to China rose sharply in late February and early March as Chinese buyers returned to the market following the Lunar New Year holiday period. Increased purchasing activity tightened vessel availability and pushed up transportation costs.
Freight rates for Panamax bulk carriers with a deadweight capacity of around 80,000 tonnes on the route from the Vostochny port to Northern China climbed to approximately $10.5 per tonne, marking an increase of roughly 17–27% compared with previous weeks.
The rise in freight costs coincided with a rebound in Chinese coal demand. Coal shipments from the region reportedly rose by around 20% during the final week of February, reaching approximately 2 million tonnes.
At the same time, inventories at Chinese ports have declined. By early March, stockpiles had fallen to about 61 million tonnes, representing an 8% decrease from late January and an 18% decline compared with the same period last year. Lower inventories have contributed to stronger short-term demand for imported coal.
Stockpiles Accumulate at Russian Far Eastern Ports
Despite the recent improvement in Chinese demand, coal inventories have been building up at Russia’s Far Eastern export terminals.
During December 2025 and January 2026, the gap between coal deliveries by rail to the ports of Vostochny and Nakhodka and actual port transshipment volumes widened significantly. In winter months, rail deliveries typically exceed export shipments due to operational challenges such as coal freezing in railcars, which complicates unloading.
However, this winter the imbalance has been unusually large. The difference between incoming rail shipments and port transshipment volumes reached approximately 1.4 million tonnes, compared with around 0.7–0.8 million tonnes during the previous two winter seasons.
Rail deliveries during December–January increased by roughly 14% year-on-year, totaling 9.1 million tonnes, while port transshipment volumes fell by around 7% year-on-year to 7.7 million tonnes.
The growing stockpiles at Far Eastern ports could limit new shipments in the near term, as producers may hesitate to increase exports amid higher freight costs and uncertain demand conditions.
Geopolitical Risks Add Pressure to Freight Markets
In addition to regional demand dynamics, geopolitical developments are also affecting maritime logistics costs.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East have prompted some shipping operators to reconsider routes through the Red Sea, with vessels increasingly choosing longer routes around Africa to avoid security risks. This rerouting can extend voyages by approximately 10–14 days, significantly increasing fuel consumption, insurance premiums, and vessel operating costs.
As a result, global freight markets may face tighter vessel availability, which could lead to higher freight rates, particularly for long-distance routes.
Markets most exposed to these changes include India and other South Asian destinations, where logistics costs for coal shipments could rise by an estimated 10–20% if rerouting becomes more widespread.
Limited Impact on Southern Russian Export Routes
While freight costs could increase on routes linked to Black Sea ports, the overall impact on coal flows from Russia’s southern export terminals may remain limited.
Coal exports through the Azov-Black Sea basin have historically been significantly smaller than shipments from the Far East. In recent months, volumes exported through southern ports have been roughly four to five times lower than those shipped through Far Eastern ports.
Furthermore, coal exported from Black Sea ports is largely directed toward Turkey and North African markets, while exports to India and other Asian destinations are typically shipped from Russia’s Far Eastern terminals.
Export Trends and Profitability
Russia continued to expand coal exports in 2025, particularly toward Asian markets. Shipments in the eastern direction increased by approximately 6.1% year-on-year, reaching 118.2 million tonnes, while exports toward southern markets rose 20.2% to 20.5 million tonnes.
The eastern export corridor remains the most profitable route for Russian coal producers due to strong demand in Asian markets.
However, industry participants note that freight rates are not the primary factor determining export profitability. In many cases, the cost of rail transportation and the price of coal itself have a greater impact on margins than maritime shipping costs.
Although the recent recovery in Chinese demand has supported freight rates and coal prices, the market outlook remains uncertain. Elevated logistics costs, potential shipping disruptions, and large coal inventories at export terminals could moderate export growth in the coming months.
Nevertheless, tighter supply from some producers and continued demand from Asian buyers may help prevent significant price declines in the near term.
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