Freight rates for Panamax vessels on the route from the port of Vostochny to northern China have already climbed to around $10.5 per tonne, reflecting tighter vessel availability and stronger demand for shipments.
However, the situation remains challenging for Russian exporters. Coal inventories have accumulated at Far Eastern ports after rail deliveries outpaced port handling capacity during the winter months. As a result, stockpiles at terminals have grown considerably.
Between December and January, around 9.1 million tonnes of coal were delivered to Far Eastern ports by rail, while only 7.7 million tonnes were shipped out. The resulting 1.4 million tonne surplus is almost twice as large as in previous winter seasons, suggesting the imbalance is not solely related to seasonal issues such as coal freezing.
With port storage already heavily utilized, operators may begin limiting new deliveries in March. When terminals are close to capacity and freight costs are rising, sending additional coal to ports can significantly weaken the economics of export shipments.
Further uncertainty is emerging on southern export routes as well. Analysts note that ongoing tensions in the Middle East could force more vessels to avoid the Red Sea and sail around Africa instead. This longer route increases transportation costs and ties up vessel capacity, which may particularly affect shipments to India and South Asian markets.
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