According to data released by Worldsteel, global crude steel output decreased by 4.6 percent year on year in November, falling to 140.1 million tons. At the center of this decline was China, where production has fallen for seven consecutive months and dropped by 10.9 percent year on year in November to 69.87 million tons.
During the January to November period, crude steel and pig iron production in China declined, while finished steel output increased, indicating weak demand and tightly controlled supply conditions in the market. On the China side, the export license application and a stronger yuan created a limiting effect on export offers, with Chinese HRC prices standing at 464–468 USD per ton FOB. Depending on the license process, some mills recorded price increases of around 20 USD per ton, which also reflected on value added products. CRC prices were in the range of 520–535 USD per ton FOB, while domestic CRC prices increased to around 550 USD per ton.
Chinese origin billet offers were at 432 USD per ton FOB and 416 USD per ton in the domestic market. This pricing environment also spilled over into Southeast Asian markets. In Vietnam, sales of Chinese origin Q235 HRC were concluded at 472 USD per ton CFR, while general market offers ranged between 475–485 USD per ton CFR. On the long products side, Chinese origin rebar offers hovered between 470–475 USD per ton CFR in Singapore and across the region. The Chinese billet price stood at 417 USD per ton EXW.
In the Indian market, low import volumes and strong export sales paved the way for HRC producers to shift back to upward pricing following the price decreases seen in early December. HRC prices started the week with an increase of 15–20 USD, reaching 525 USD per ton. Wire rod prices also increased by approximately 5–7 USD from the beginning of the week, rising to 447 USD per ton. In addition, India’s decision to impose anti dumping duties ranging from 223.82–414.92 USD per ton for five years on imports of Chinese origin CRNO electrical steel showed that policies aimed at protecting domestic producers are continuing. Under the CEPA agreement signed with Oman, zero customs duty will be applied to 98 percent of exports, and Jindal Steel’s capacity expansion plans in Sohar indicate that India’s competitiveness in Middle Eastern and surrounding markets has increased significantly.
On the raw materials front, %62 Fe iron ore prices were at 108 USD per ton CFR Northern China, while low transaction volumes ahead of the Christmas holiday and weak demand put pressure on prices. Oversupply in Brazilian origin cargoes outside the main preferred supply routes further intensified this pressure. Despite a third round of price cuts in metallurgical coke, the weak outlook persisted, while limited supply from Australia provided partial support to FOB prices. Indonesian origin coking coal followed a more stable trend thanks to strong demand from India. In addition, the Chinese market is preparing to gradually shift to a %61 Fe basis in iron ore pricing starting from February 2026.
Due to year end conditions, buyers remain cautious, while producers tend to keep supply under control.
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