According to the report, tensions in the Middle East are causing humanitarian losses and economic costs in directly affected countries, while also testing the resilience of the global economy. Disruptions in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy infrastructure have led to sharp increases in prices, and this situation has also negatively affected the global supply of other key commodities. While volatility in financial markets has increased, financial conditions have tightened, particularly in some Asian economies.
The report noted that uncertainty regarding the scope and duration of the tensions is increasing risks. Prolonged high energy prices are expected to raise operating costs and create upward pressure on consumer inflation. It was also stated that rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions coincide with a sensitive period for economies such as the United Kingdom, the United States, Türkiye, Brazil, and Mexico, where inflation remains above targets.
The OECD maintained its global growth forecast for 2026 at 2.9%, as announced in December 2025. However, this figure points to a slowdown compared to the 3.3% growth recorded in 2025. The organization revised its 2027 growth outlook downward by 0.1 percentage points to 3%.
It was noted that the increase in energy prices and the unpredictable nature of the conflict in the Middle East are expected to weaken demand by raising costs, although this effect could be offset by technology investments and the growth momentum carried over from 2025. OECD projections are based on the assumption that disruptions in energy markets will gradually ease and that prices for oil, gas, and fertilizers will decline progressively from mid-2026.
Regarding the Turkish economy, the OECD revised its growth forecast downward by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3% for this year. The 2027 growth outlook was also reduced by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8%. The organization estimates that inflation in Türkiye will reach 26.7% this year and 16.9% in 2027.
The US economy is expected to grow by 2% this year and 1.7% in 2027, with forecasts revised upward for 2026 and downward for 2027. In the Euro Area, growth is projected to slow to 0.8% this year due to pressure from high energy prices and then rise to 1.2% in 2027 supported by defense spending. In China, growth is expected to decline to 4.4% this year and 4.3% next year.
The report also stated that inflation in G20 countries could rise to 4% this year, 1.2 percentage points higher than previous expectations, and then decline to 2.7% in 2027 as pressure from energy prices eases.
Among the downside risks to the global economy, the OECD highlighted continued disruptions in exports from the Middle East, which could further increase energy prices and deepen the contraction in commodity supply. It was stated that this scenario could raise inflation while slowing growth. The report also warned that failure to achieve expected returns from artificial intelligence investments and broader repricing in financial markets could weaken demand.
The OECD emphasized that central banks should act cautiously against energy price shocks and firmly anchor inflation expectations. It was noted that monetary policy adjustments could come into play in the event of a significant weakening in the growth outlook or a broadening of price pressures. The report also pointed out that fiscal space is limited and emphasized the importance of stronger steps by governments to ensure debt sustainability, control spending, and improve public efficiency.
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