Bilgiç stated that there is no clear and comprehensive data on who consumes how much scrap in Türkiye, noting that this stems from record-keeping problems in both the scrap and steel sectors.
Reminding that Türkiye is the world’s 17th largest economy and the seventh largest steel producer, Bilgiç described the absence of long-term projections regarding scrap supply for a sector of this scale as a major deficiency. Pointing to the risks of a raw-material structure dependent on external sources, he said: “We cannot even provide an approximate figure for how much scrap Türkiye will be able to generate domestically 20 years from now. This is unacceptable. A knowledge ecosystem must be established.”
According to calculations shared by Bilgiç, Türkiye produced approximately 36.8–36.9 million tons of crude steel in 2024, while total scrap consumption was around 31.5 million tons. He noted that 20 million tons of this consisted of imported scrap and the remainder was considered domestic scrap, but emphasized that the concept of “domestic scrap” needs to be clarified. He stated that internal recycling scrap generated within steel plants may account for about 5%, corresponding to roughly 1.5 million tons. He also noted that about 1.1 million tons of shipbreaking scrap, 1 million tons of HBI, and approximately 500 thousand tons of pig iron were included in the overall raw-material balance.
Under these assumptions, Bilgiç said that the scrap genuinely supplied from the domestic market in 2024 was around 7.2 million tons, arguing that the commonly cited figure of 10 million tons of domestic scrap is overstated.
In his assessment for 2025, he stated that crude steel production rose to 38.1 million tons and scrap consumption increased to about 33.3 million tons. Imported scrap declined to 18.7 million tons, marking a 6.5% decrease compared to the previous year. He noted that supply from the United States and the European Union in particular had decreased. In contrast, HBI imports rose by 46% to 1.5 million tons, and imported pig iron use increased to approximately 750 thousand tons.
According to Bilgiç’s calculations, Türkiye’s total domestic scrap generation reached approximately 9.6 million tons in 2025. However, he emphasized that this figure is also an estimate, noting that scrap potential can be derived from past steel consumption. He stated that after an approximately 35-year cycle, about 70% of consumed steel can be transformed into scrap, a ratio similar to that of countries such as South Korea.
Within this framework, Bilgiç projected that Türkiye could produce between 24 and 28 million tons of domestic scrap annually by 2060, adding that targets to raise steel capacity to 90 million tons do not appear compatible with current raw-material dynamics. He asked: “A target of 90 million tons of steel production for 2050 is being discussed. But if imported scrap shrinks, with which raw material will this production be achieved?”
Bilgiç also stated that potential European Union restrictions on low-copper, high-quality scrap would affect Türkiye’s production pattern, noting that scrap quality directly determines which types of steel can be produced. He emphasized that the mixture known as 80/20 is mainly suitable for construction steel, whereas flat and higher value-added products require higher-quality scrap or alternative iron sources.
According to Bilgiç, imported scrap will not disappear completely from Türkiye’s future but its share will decline; domestic scrap will be used in line with capacity, and the share of iron-based alternative raw materials such as HBI will increase. Reminding that global scrap demand is rising, he stressed that the sector must base long-term planning on data, concluding: “Instead of imaginary capacity increases far above today’s production, a strategy aligned with raw-material realities should be followed.”
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