The effects of the US tax policies on global trade and Turkey's iron and steel industry were discussed at the online “Söz Sizde - Steel Talks" event organized by the Steel Foreign Trade Association on March 4, 2025.
Speaking at the event, Kutay Kenan Ülkü, Trade Manager at Tata International Limited, emphasized that Türkiye's steel exports should primarily focus on the European market. “We should look at Europe first, not the US. When all else is equal, the US will not suddenly open up,” Ülkü stated, adding that Europe's steel exports to the US consisted largely of special steels and tin-coated flat products. Stating that these products correspond to 25% of total US purchases, Ülkü emphasized that this is not the most important point: “No one is looking at how much steel the US buys from Europe, there is a psychological point here. Trump introduced Section 232 in the 2017-2018 period and Europe protected itself with quotas, and this problem is still ongoing. Europe has a share in the 25% tariff, but this will make it even more protectionist.”
Europe will increase protection measures, Ülkü emphasized, adding that although Türkiye has an advantage in flat steel, the new restrictions could negatively affect the sector. “The biggest impact will be the drop in demand in Europe. Demand has suddenly stopped in the last two weeks. While Europe is protecting itself, there is talk that there may be new limitations on Türkiye's total quotas,” he explained.
The prospect of a cap on annual quotas will put more pressure on the sector, Ülkü stated, “This time the situation will affect everyone. It is unclear what will happen to the limit, which was 18% before. Moreover, even if the quotas remain unchanged, the economic recession in the UK, Germany and France continues. This will have a negative impact on steel demand.”
Ülkü noted that even if demand increases, it will first be met from the domestic market and added, “Imports can only start after domestic demand is fully met, and I do not expect this to happen in at least three years. I think it is not right to prepare for major investments before economic recovery is achieved. We need to maintain our position in Europe rather than selling to the US.”
You can watch Kutay Kenan Ülkü's full speech with English subtitles by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9afPUPczRM
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